Explore all emails from Contrarian Thinking

The most important letter in the alphabet right now isn't a, b, c, x, y, or z. It's k. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b1fc2310-d586-4525-89ef-7712333b8dec/CT_NL_4226_Graphics__6_.png?t=1775740573) Caption: For many, life is feeling K-shaped, in more ways than one. Everywhere you look, it’s: prosperity and precarity. Boom and bust. Opportunity and stagnation. Up or down. Accelerate… or die. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a01642d0-5ee7-4393-9dd5-125dc77040a8/image_-_2026-04-09T091622.268.png?t=1775740595) Caption: Just look at the data. Here’s one example: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bc3e6cbf-b068-4c5f-8421-8602d6ec1e3a/fredgraph.png?t=1775740627) Caption: The stock market is ↑, while consumer sentiment is ↓. That may sound strange until you think about what it actually represents. * Stocks —> people who own * Consumer sentiment —> people who owe The stock market’s performance largely measures how the top 10% feel. Consumer sentiment measures everyone else. Also, lots of stuff can contribute to K-shaped dichotomies like this in the market. But what’s becoming increasingly clear is that this K shape is appearing… everywhere. The nature of your work. AI skills. Asset exposure (stocks, real estate, business ownership). Once you start to see it, you can’t unsee it. Here’s what we mean… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### WAIT - BEFORE YOU GO FURTHER… Business owners love this free event. We think you might, too. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ec3e6cf7-0e76-4eea-b757-61b27b53a7d2/CT_NL_4226_Graphics__12_.png?t=1775740665) Follow image link: (https://info.contrarianthinking.co/buy-masterclass?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=masterclass_buy_april_26) Caption: In this 90-minute call, we’ll show you the exact levers we’re seeing drive growth in 2026. At our last workshop, attendees uncovered $7.6M in hidden revenue opportunities. Learn some of the same things they did, right here, for free. [Click HERE to secure a spot](https://info.contrarianthinking.co/build-masterclass?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=masterclass_build_april_26). ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## K-shaped trends you need to see… Let’s start here. **The top 10% now account for nearly half of all consumer spending.** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c7686608-a519-4e13-b872-dd7728cb6950/image_-_2026-04-09T091824.057.png?t=1775740714) Caption: “This is why the economy can look strong in the data while millions of people feel like they're falling behind,” as Peter Mallouk [put it](https://x.com/PeterMallouk/status/2033531478156759220?s=20). Another one: **Homeownership is going “great”… if you're 70:** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/70920d70-a51c-45e7-ae06-22978cf563e0/image_-_2026-04-09T091843.015.png?t=1775740734) Caption: But not great if you’re 30… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/583567f3-ae5f-453e-bff8-b1005a68c6eb/image_-_2026-04-09T091925.681.png?t=1775740770) Caption: As Scott Galloway said: “_“We’ve broken the social contract that binds America: Work hard, play by the rules, and you’ll be better off than your parents were. For the first time in our nation’s history, this is no longer true… Neither the minimum nor median wage has kept pace with inflation or productivity gains, while housing costs have outpaced them… A decent proxy for the success of a society is how it treats children… Can we answer a simple question: Do we love our children?”_“ — The man certainly has a gift for stabbing you with the truth, then twisting the blade… Okay, what else? How about: **“Offices for computers” will increasingly break ground, “offices for people” less so.** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e510bc22-97ed-43c8-80a3-8079c7f543d6/Screenshot_2026-04-09_at_9.20.04_AM.png?t=1775740821) Caption: How about **reading?** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/0fd69dd1-9519-460d-8f72-f48dd879a18a/image_-_2026-04-09T092046.191.png?t=1775740862) Caption: What about our **media consumption** (YouTube, in particular)? View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ba674994-06f4-4866-be97-27db86fa80a8/Screenshot_2026-04-09_at_7.36.41_AM.png?t=1775740875) Caption: Our **values?** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ad9e0c9e-fe52-4b3e-8fdb-3bd494188345/Screenshot_2026-04-09_at_7.38.05_AM.png?t=1775740902) Caption: How about **AI spending:** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/68a42d2f-e315-47e1-b2d3-3169b00a2671/image_-_2026-04-09T092158.802.png?t=1775740931) Caption: Vs… **Alcohol spending**: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/404ffc97-dc64-43c0-bde7-f7c3203f9aa0/image_-_2026-04-09T092201.067.png?t=1775740958) Caption: In the tech world, especially, things are going K-shaped _fast_. Bearing in mind correlation ≠ causation… **Companies using AI heavily are seeing their revenue double, while companies that aren't using AI… aren’t seeing that.** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/4bb10599-d01e-4653-afcd-a5a798ba770b/Screenshot_2026-04-09_at_9.23.11_AM.png?t=1775741002) Caption: Anecdotally, the same thing is appearing in careers: **“AI users vs. AI refusers” is rapidly manifesting in K-shaped results.** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/df4a606c-e46e-4ccd-9b1f-128f2ac5ec8d/Screenshot_2026-04-09_at_9.23.52_AM.png?t=1775741042) Caption: Look around in your own job, and you’ll likely agree. As Shaan Puri [illustrated it](https://www.shaanpuri.com/essays/the-k-shaped-economy): View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/89f5ee2d-9d34-49dc-9382-6f45f6ac7af0/image_-_2026-04-09T092424.645.png?t=1775741077) Caption: K-shapes are even manifesting in weird headlines like these… **NVIDIA employees are seeing their net worths rocket past $25 million…** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/3a4b96dc-955b-45c4-b7f7-9e88bc908d13/image_-_2026-04-09T092501.162.png?t=1775741109) Caption: **…While young tech grads who thought they’d be set for life are competing for Chipotle jobs.** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a0af4675-ae3e-4cef-be63-265e415196d6/image_-_2026-04-09T092520.343.png?t=1775741128) Caption: (10 years ago, it would’ve been hard to believe that could be a headline.) Some recent K-shaped trends are happening so fast, they’re hard to visualize: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/647cc51e-514a-4c81-8cfd-a724818dce27/Screenshot_2026-04-09_at_9.25.47_AM.png?t=1775741164) Caption: How exactly they measure this… who knows? But here’s what’s important: today, it’s words and code. Eventually, it may be houses, factories, and entire businesses. Value will accrue to those who own and can leverage AI for their benefit. Which is why this may be the _most important_ K-shaped chart for you to see today… **Labor now takes home its smallest slice of the economy in decades.** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/786aec90-fe5b-4b2e-b026-b3a3fb5f8559/image_-_2026-04-09T092614.313.png?t=1775741185) Caption: “This explains almost all of the discourse around the K shaped economy,” the account [@BoringBiz_](https://x.com/BoringBiz_) explained. Here’s how they broke it down: * “When you are young, society essentially offers you a trade, give us your labor, in exchange we will give you capital that can help you retire comfortably. This worked out well for many decades.” * “People entered the job market, contributed their sweat and tears in the form of labor, and walked away with a happy retirement at the age of 65. Then the growth stalled down and the money printer was turned on. Asset prices went vertical but the value of labor didn’t keep pace.” * “Today, that labor doesn’t earn you anywhere close to what it used to in inflation-adjusted dollars. In summary, the people who only have labor to contribute got the short end of the stick. With the onset of AI, this trend probably only continues. Value of labor will get diluted away. Capital owners will continue to capture the value and rejoice as assets appreciate.” Read that again, then read it again and again, until you get it. The money is moving toward capital, not labor. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ae8e109b-40fc-4134-b8cc-825538c19525/image_-_2026-04-09T092636.558.png?t=1775741204) Caption: The patterns are clear: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8ac193c3-bf95-43f1-ba87-0fc77744cb8c/CT_NL_4226_Graphics__11_.png?t=1775741225) Caption: ## The Common Thread At the heart of it all, the story we’re living in isn’t really about tech layoffs, or housing markets, or even AI. The story is about _who owns what._ That’s the American economy today, and the winners are clear. As Sam Altman put it in 2019: _“You get rich by owning things… Somehow or other, you need to own equity in something, instead of just selling your time. Time only scales linearly."_ Only getting truer. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/28fdb78c-e86c-45c3-8946-e61cb8188b16/69393b917980a29f6ff5d579_Screenshot_2025-12-10_at_3.24.32_AM.webp?t=1775741288) Caption: Don’t let this be you. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c33232a3-d280-4d71-95d0-c248b5f0e512/image_-_2026-04-09T092819.751.png?t=1775741305) Caption: ## Our invitation to you… We want you to be on the right side of the K-shaped economy and **own the businesses AI isn’t replacing anytime soon**. So we’re going to give you the exact playbooks to do it. Things like… > Spotting great business ownership opportunities > Structuring deals > Stepping into ownership > Using AI to scale We’re talking about deals like these… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8f14bd53-94c6-4b3a-86ca-3df406825d23/Screenshot_2026-04-09_at_9.28.54_AM.png?t=1775741345) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_june_2026) Caption: And we’re going to do it with you at this [1 incredible event](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_june_2026)[ ](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_june_2026)coming up. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/87f51a64-8de1-4232-80ca-626c708d32ee/image_-_2026-04-02T093518.891__1_.png?t=1775147777) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_june_2026) Caption: Come, and we’ll show you how to: * Identify great businesses for you (and avoid bad ones). * Finance acquisitions with tools like SBA loans and seller financing. * Negotiate with sellers and transition into ownership. * And so, so much more. You can check out **[the schedule here.](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_june_2026)** The cool part: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/2d5d2e27-7f2c-4724-ac2d-990f3e5468e4/MSM_NL_112525.png?t=1766675353) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_june_2026) Caption: **[Click HERE to learn more and save your spot](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_june_2026)****.** The American Dream might look broken or splintered, but it isn’t dead. It’s just waiting for new ownership. We’d love to help you seize it. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/we-re-living-in-a-k-shaped-world

In 1958, an economist named Leonard Read wrote an essay narrated by a pencil. A pencil? View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/9c4e846f-c2e6-4b4c-a43c-3abc91e07903/CT_NL_4226_Graphics.png?t=1775147432) Caption: Why? Because he wanted to make a point about how the economy works, and he figured the most ordinary object he could find would make it best. The essay traces the pencil, quite literally, back to its roots in the ground. * The cedar in the wood grows in Oregon. * To cut it down, you need loggers. * To equip the loggers, you need saws. * To make the saws, you need steel mills. * To transport the logs, you need trucks and truckers, tires, and oil. * To run the logging camp, you need a cook. * A cook needs food, which comes from farms and so on… As Read points out, even the cup of coffee the loggers drank at breakfast was touched by an "untold thousands of persons." And that's just the wood. He then runs through the graphite, the lacquer, the brass, the eraser. By the end, a six-cent pencil had quietly involved millions of people and businesses across dozens of countries who never met and had no idea they were building something together. **His conclusion:** no 1 person or business actually knows how to make and deliver a pencil in its totality, from start to finish. Great essay. Required reading in economics classes everywhere. And also, it turns out, a perfect way to understand why today’s AI boom is one of the best small business opportunities of our lifetime. Below, we’ll show you why. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### SAVE YOUR SPOT View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/36503fb7-6619-4020-82b1-abef47ae5e98/CT_NL_4226_Graphics__4_.png?t=1775158201) Follow image link: (https://info.contrarianthinking.co/buy-masterclass?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=masterclass_buy_april_26) Caption: If you want to buy a cash-flowing business in 2026, you need to take action soon. In this free, live call, we’ll show you how. [Sign up now](https://info.contrarianthinking.co/buy-masterclass?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=masterclass_buy_april_26) to attend. ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## The World's Most Sophisticated Technology Requires a Guy with a Porta-Potty Very few people are running that same pencil exercise on a data center. And more should be. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have announced ~$700 billion in AI infrastructure spending for 2026. Not over the decade. This year. The White House has launched AI buildout initiatives worth hundreds of billions, too. It feels like there’s a new data center press release every day. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/74d0e367-0fd9-4f87-9fc4-89307ba245da/Screenshot_2026-04-02_at_9.31.37_AM.png?t=1775147507) Follow image link: (https://x.com/scottlincicome/status/2033624987530080341?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2033624987530080341%7Ctwgr%5E2831037851b895a0ef4467c6f5bb705fd343545a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.notion.so%2Fcontrarianthinking%2FThe-Blue-Collar-Businesses-Behind-the-AI-Economy-328b87cc354080419acae2f4a4025cf0) Caption: “Nearly 3,000 new data centers are under construction or planned across the U.S., per a new analysis shared first with Axios — adding to the more than 4,000 already in operation,” [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/12/18/data-center-growth-map-states) put it. Tech media is arguing about whether the latest model has achieved sentience. Few are asking what it actually takes to clean the sh*t out of the bathroom the guys who built the data center running that model were using for 18 months. **So let's do it.** These are just a tiny subset of examples: * Electricians pulling cable. * Concrete crews pouring foundations. * HVAC specialists designing cooling systems. * The porta potty company servicing the construction site. * The fuel delivery driver keeping the generators running. * The fencing contractor securing the perimeter. * The lunch trucks feeding the crews. * The gravel supplier. * The flagging company directing traffic on the access road. * The surveyor who staked the lot lines six months before anyone broke ground. * The tree removal crew that cleared the site. * The pest control company keeping rodents out of the conduit runs. * The uniform service washing 200 sets of coveralls a week. * The safety sign printer. * The dumpster rental company. * The striping company painting the parking lot. * The fire extinguisher inspector. * The portable generator rental outfit. * The soil testing lab that cleared the ground for contamination. * The seed and mulch company handling erosion control on the perimeter. We could write a similar essay about a GPU, and it would be ridiculously long. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## Your Opportunity: Bits Have an Atoms Problem Microsoft President Brad Smith has called the electrician shortage the number one problem slowing U.S. data center expansion. The math is brutal. Electrical work = [45-70%](https://fortune.com/2026/03/02/ai-data-centers-electrician-shortage-gen-z-training-careers/) of total data center construction costs. 300,000+ new electricians are needed over the next decade. About 20,000 retiring annually. Apprenticeship applications jumped 70% between 2022 and 2024, and supply still can't keep up. Google pledged $15 million to the Electrical Training Alliance to try to grow more of them, which is a remarkable sentence when you think about it. Electricians on data center projects are commanding significant wage premiums, with many exceeding $100,000 annually. The jobs least vulnerable to AI include, with some irony, the ones literally wiring it into existence. ### The Infrastructure Paradox The world's most advanced technology requires the world's most essential trades. While most are thinking about the **Algorithm Layer**, you should be spending more time focused on the **Bottleneck Layer**. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/77fa1e4e-0a13-4f9a-af7f-454cf2749fb0/CT_NL_4226_Graphics__3_.png?t=1775148512) Caption: Here's the thing. Every industry that explodes tends to rely on a hidden layer of (often unglamorous) businesses. If it weren’t for plumbers, excavators, and dumpster delivery drivers, Google’s Gemini model wouldn’t be able to one-shot the image below, breaking down this entire process: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bdd089f6-de23-42be-84c1-7d05c320c624/image_-_2026-04-02T093232.894.png?t=1775147586) Caption: ## Still, You Probably Won’t Become an Electrician, And That’s Okay You can learn to buy one of their businesses. Here's who's selling right now. His name is something like Dave or Gary. He started his electrical contracting business in 1987, built it into a solid operation with 10-15 guys, does $6 million in revenue, and has been running it basically the same way since the Clinton administration. He doesn't have a website that works on mobile. His estimating system is a spreadsheet his nephew built in 2009. He is 71 years old, his knees hurt, and he wants to go fishing. Dave is not alone. Tens of thousands of electrical businesses operate in the United States. Around 30% of union electricians are between 50 and 70 years old. They are retiring in waves, pricing on yesterday, and selling into one of the biggest infrastructure buildouts in American history. This is the trade. ## The Great Transfer America is on the cusp of the largest wealth transfer in its history. A “Silver Tsunami” doesn’t mean money will rain from the sky, but it does mean lots of unique opportunities will appear. Boomers own roughly half of all small businesses in the U.S. But they’re beginning to age out. Retiring. Dying. Deciding they don’t want to manage payroll or deal with customers anymore. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/dc4a9f50-858b-445d-a30e-e473ffa03c47/CT_NL_4226_Graphics__2_.png?t=1775147626) Caption: They’re looking to offload what they’ve built. It’s not always because of money. It’s often because life happens: 1. **Departure:** Retirement, the most common driver. 2. **Divorce:** A forced asset split. 3. **Disease:** Health challenges push an exit. 4. **Disagreement:** Partners fall out. 5. **Distress:** Financial strain forces a sale. 6. **Death:** An estate liquidates quickly. 7. **Dullness:** The owner is simply bored. Spot one of these Ds, and you’ve found a pressure point, a moment where a good business may be available at a great price. But to capture these businesses, you need to understand how to find them, analyze them, make an offer for them, finance them, and, of course, run them. # Why This Matters Now The uncomfortable truth is that it’s becoming increasingly difficult for income alone to secure your children’s future. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/758c5e73-815a-4691-8c0a-da2f5ddaa58e/image_-_2026-04-02T093405.211.png?t=1775147653) Caption: Now you know: * Office tower construction might be slowing, but the HVAC companies servicing them are profitable.‍ * Big Tech jobs might be increasingly scarce, but the plumbing businesses that keep their data centers running aren’t going anywhere.‍ * Those data centers may be the new oil wells, but behind every one are local pest control crews, security firms, and maintenance providers. This is the unsexy side of the economy where wealth is stealthily being built, and where ordinary Americans can claim a stake. And the good news, for you, is that owning a piece is possible for anyone willing to learn how. Now’s your chance. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **1 COOL THING** ## 🗓️ Coming Up: Blue Collar Business Buying Event We have a WILDLY immersive event coming up, all about learning how to buy the businesses AI isn’t replacing anytime soon. [_Get a sneak peek here._](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_june_2026) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/87f51a64-8de1-4232-80ca-626c708d32ee/image_-_2026-04-02T093518.891__1_.png?t=1775147776) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_june_2026) Caption: Yeah, the energy is going to knock the roof off the place, which is fine cause you’ll be learning how to buy a blue-collar business to fix it, like these guys: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8aff5ad9-bc20-4196-9c3b-13a9607d4e50/image_-_2026-04-02T093515.656__1_.png?t=1775147782) Caption: Jokes, jokes. Anyway… **[Learn more and save your spot here](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_june_2026)** while the price is still low. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/the-invisible-profitable-unsexy-businesses-behind-the-trillion-dollar-ai-boom

The Egyptians figured it out 4,500 years ago. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/6eb984e2-3c27-4f27-9228-2655ce3bf770/Gemini_Generated_Image_4t15254t15254t15__2_.png?t=1774562944) Caption: Archimedes wrote it down 2,300 years ago. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b2942542-2329-4bec-86af-42968e83c5ca/CT_NL_32626_Graphics__1___1_.png?t=1774562966) Caption: And, as Sam Altman and Naval Ravikant would probably tell you if you asked them today, all these years later, leverage is as **powerful** a force as ever. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/01dde8f6-8f74-4572-ae12-d8234b533505/Screenshot_2026-03-26_at_6.09.43_PM.png?t=1774562994) Follow image link: (https://x.com/naval/status/1503125171745411073?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1503125171745411073%7Ctwgr%5E687ecc2209d4e539a87f23829f331fd32745af80%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.notion.so%2Fcontrarianthinking%2FNaval-Ravikant-Made-Me-My-First-Million-32fb87cc3540805c9accd11f01e8c044) Caption: By the time we made our first real money, we'd never been in the same room as Naval Ravikant. But somewhere between Wall Street and Main Street, a few lines he wrote rewired the entire way we thought about work, money, and time. Here's the idea that cracked things open for us: Most people try to get rich by “working harder,” but not the wealthy. Sure, they work hard. Very hard. You have to. But that’s probably not _how_ they got rich. They might not even know it, but they got rich by using leverage. Naval defines it simply: [leverage is a force multiplier.](https://www.navalmanack.com/almanack-of-naval-ravikant/find-a-position-of-leverage) It decouples linear inputs and outputs. Instead of **1x** input equaling 1x output, it enables an output greater than 1x (and often, **10x**, **100x**, or even greater than **1000x** larger). View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/96b0f6b3-f5bb-4916-8d1d-76cb1794fe23/Salary__6_.png?t=1774563026) Caption: But most people don’t realize that leverage comes in many shapes and sizes. Naval identified these: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fb89da0a-ebf0-4b1d-b105-32a0414d78b9/CT_NL_32626_Graphics__5___1_.png?t=1774563040) Caption: We've spent years trying to apply these in the real world, in our business, and helping others see how they can, too. ## Force 1: Labor Labor leverage is simple: other people's time and effort, directed by your judgment, producing output you couldn't generate alone. Nearly every civilization, every empire, and every company in history has been built on this principle. The railroads. Oil giants. Your local hardware store. McDonald's. **McDonald's** is worth studying. Ray Kroc didn't invent the burger. He built a system so airtight that hundreds of thousands of employees across 40,000 locations could execute it identically, every single day, in 100 different countries. [ResiBrands](https://www.resibrands.com/), our family of home services franchises across painting, roofing, window cleaning, garage repair, and handyman services, works similarly. Lots of locations and employees, one great system. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8820606d-e1bf-4551-b2cb-566e56d1d1ab/image_-_2026-03-26T181103.713__1_.png?t=1774563590) Caption: But you should know, Naval actually called labor "the worst form of leverage" because it's the messiest. It has **friction**. It requires permission. People have to _choose_ to work for you. You have to recruit, train, culture-build, and retain. That limits how efficient it is as a tool. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/df99cf6a-3d2c-4f37-9171-74653fbdc4c0/Screenshot_2026-03-26_at_6.11.44_PM.png?t=1774563112) Follow image link: (https://x.com/Codie_Sanchez/status/1999487968445112672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1999487968445112672%7Ctwgr%5E687ecc2209d4e539a87f23829f331fd32745af80%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.notion.so%2Fcontrarianthinking%2FNaval-Ravikant-Made-Me-My-First-Million-32fb87cc3540805c9accd11f01e8c044) Caption: Managing people also requires tremendous leadership skills. A bad hire can **poison** **culture**, eat your time, and cost you money on the way out. One wrong person in the wrong seat can set a small business back 12 months. But for the kinds of businesses our [Contrarian Academy](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/) members buy on Main Street, labor leverage usually isn't optional. A masonry business needs talent. A landscaping company needs crews. An HVAC business lives and dies by the quality of its technicians. * Stage 1: You are the labor * Stage 2: You hire to do the labor and shift focus * Stage 3: You build systems that manage labor at scale The question is whether you're building a system that people can operate in, or whether you are the system. ## Force 2: Capital Capital leverage is money doing work. Most people hear that and think: _“But I'm not Warren Buffett.”_ Fair. But the principle scales all the way down to Main Street. When you buy a business with an SBA loan, you're quite literally using capital leverage. You put in $100K, borrow $400K from a bank, and buy a $500K business generating $120K a year. **Seller financing** takes it even further. Instead of a bank, the seller might be willing to become your lender and accept payments over time rather than a lump sum at close. You get the keys to the business with less capital upfront and **incentive alignment** with the seller. They get a steady income stream, a better tax rate, and a motivated buyer. Structured right, both sides can win. One of our Contrarian Academy members, Jesus Wong, used a similar playbook. After 16 years in corporate finance, he left his job, reviewed over 1,000 businesses, and ultimately acquired the largest technical garment repair company in North America, a **$7M revenue**, 85-person operation with 3 locations across the US and Canada. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/dfd41bc1-d5e7-4d6d-9533-f20a52105b09/image_-_2026-03-26T181219.592__1_.png?t=1774563167) Caption: The deal was structured with a seller note and performance-based components that protected his downside while giving the seller upside if the business hit its targets. Capital leverage, structured creatively, made the deal work. Then there's **multiple expansion**, and this is where capital leverage gets really interesting. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/0b971fd8-9502-43cc-b354-01b16678e011/CT_NL_32626_Graphics__2_.png?t=1774563260) Caption: Increase profit by **$300k** in an industry with a **4x** multiple, and you’ve just added **$1.2M** to your business’s value. Far easier said than done, but do that a few times and you’ve bent the slope of your family’s financial life. One thing people miss about **capital leverage**: it’s not just about the money you borrow to buy an asset or the value you add. It can also be combined with **labor leverage**, by putting capital toward other people’s expertise. Or, as we call it, their 10,000 hours. Jesus didn't try to figure out deal structure, due diligence, and legal risk on his own. He interviewed ten lawyers before picking one. He worked with accountants and a loan advisor. He used his capital to build an expert deal team in little time. That's leverage, too. ## Force 3: Products With No Marginal Cost of Replication This is the newest form of leverage, and potentially the most powerful. Books. Media. Podcasts. Code. AI. Things you build once that **scale** **infinitely**. You do the work a single time, and the output can keep occurring without you having to “do the work” again. This is fundamentally different from labor and capital leverage, which have natural ceilings and gatekeepers. This leverage has neither. As Naval puts it, **it's** **permissionless**. SMB operators who use this permissionless leverage will accelerate. Those who don’t will atrophy. But code and AI are only part of this force, which also includes **attention**. We started Contrarian Thinking with a couple of hundred email subscribers. But over time, as we build it up: * Our followers asked the same questions over and over * Those questions became educational programs * Those programs became large-scale business advisory services, annual events, venture investments, and more View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/7c4ffafe-1856-49b8-b639-47481477e9fc/CT_NL_Distribution_12425__4_.png?t=1764881817) Caption: Attention leverage can invert the **information asymmetry** that pains many businesses. You stop guessing what the market wants because the market is literally in your inbox, telling you. ---------- TOGETHER WITH BEEHIIV ## We built an 8-figure business on that insight Much of the Contrarian Thinking sales playbook fits on a napkin: 1. Get someone's email 2. Send them something useful/fun/cool 3. Don't be annoying 4. Repeat forever Groundbreaking stuff, we know. But that's the foundation of what took us from $0 —> 8-figure brand. Plus, we run our newsletters on [beehiiv.](https://beehiiv.link/wvlesa) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/537e7700-a1a1-43d1-8b81-8a15972504dd/Screenshot_2026-02-16_at_10.40.42_AM__4___1_.png?t=1774563289) Follow image link: (https://beehiiv.link/wvlesa) Caption: Fun fact: we actually invested in the company early on. We saw what the team was cooking up, knew we'd end up being customers, wrote a check, then migrated our entire list over. Turns out our thesis was right because what [beehiiv](https://beehiiv.link/wvlesa) is doing is kind of absurd. * Want to monetize from day one? They'll bring you ad deals. * No one knows you exist yet? Their recommendation network fixes that. * Need a sexy website for all your content and digital products? Only takes minutes with their AI website builder. * Want to automate the entire thing and personalize it at scale? Use their segmenting and automation tools. And the team. THE TEAM. These people are animals. Doesn't matter if you're a solo creator, a small business, or a major publisher. Tyler (the CEO) responds to customer feedback at hours that suggest he either doesn't sleep or is actually 2 people in a trench coat. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/360a7ff5-9063-4a1a-be55-d374b70ed267/image__4_.gif?t=1774563312) Caption: Anyway, the beehiiv folks wanted to hook our readers up, so here you go: If you've been sitting on a newsletter idea, or your current newsletter setup makes you want to karate chop your laptop, go to: [_beehiiv.com/codie_](https://beehiiv.link/wvlesa), and use code CODIE30 for 30% off for 3 months. ----------## If you’re wondering where to start… The businesses that compound the fastest often find ways to use multiple forces. Labor to execute. Capital to own and invest. Attention and code to build and distribute. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/f9542075-6e98-4400-b688-3ccc73048d32/CT_NL_32626_Graphics__6___1_.png?t=1774563390) Caption: But right now, the easiest place to start is with code and attention. _Build an audience in your domain. Teach what you know. Use AI to do the work of 3 people. You don't need permission from a bank or a boss to do any of that today._ From there, save and stack. Learn to deploy capital, even small amounts, into a smart and responsible deal. It will change your relationship with money forever. Most people spend their entire careers **stuck as someone else's leverage**, trading time for money, 1x input for 1x output. 4,500 years ago, the Egyptians saw this was gonna be a problem and solved it with leverage. The gap you’re facing can likely be solved with smart leverage, too. So go close it. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **1 COOL THING** ## Free masterclass? Check this out… If you want to buy a business in 2026, you likely need to take action soon. In April, we’re going to show you our _10 key steps_ to getting this done the right way. Come for free! [Save your virtual spot here.](https://info.contrarianthinking.co/buy-masterclass?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=masterclass_buy_april_26) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **DOPAMINE HIT** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/4f4cd16b-4a5c-49aa-84cf-96f3f43dbf87/Screenshot_2026-03-26_at_6.16.56_PM.png?t=1774563427) Follow image link: (https://x.com/Codie_Sanchez/status/2035740065167450130?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2035740065167450130%7Ctwgr%5E687ecc2209d4e539a87f23829f331fd32745af80%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.notion.so%2Fcontrarianthinking%2FNaval-Ravikant-Made-Me-My-First-Million-32fb87cc3540805c9accd11f01e8c044) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/1-old-principle-that-made-us-millions

---------- View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/63c3092f-132f-4d12-aa52-20a6e710c574/CT_NL_31926_Thumbnail.png?t=1773957141) Caption: ----------So we posted this on X the other day, and safe to say it got some eyeballs… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c570eda5-5011-45d7-879a-e9ac98482810/Screenshot_2026-03-19_at_5.53.04_PM.png?t=1773957193) Follow image link: (https://x.com/Codie_Sanchez/status/2033580366351458341?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2033580366351458341%7Ctwgr%5E07d785b41d9100915e24874e6deb3ed2ed8c3dd4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.notion.so%2Fcontrarianthinking%2FAI-Transformation-Hire-326b87cc354080c6862bca77473ceefd) Caption: So we wanted to dive in a little deeper and explain our thinking. Okay, a lot deeper. **In a sentence:** almost no one is making the most critical hire they should be making right now, because they don’t know what to… call it? Every company knows they need to “implement AI.” But very few have intentionally hired the people responsible for actually doing it. We’re talking about people who live inside your business and use AI to eliminate processes, compress timelines, and increase output across every department. These roles don’t really have widespread names yet. * “AI Specialists?” * “AI Generalists?” * “AI Engineers?” * “Claude Whisperers?” * “Someone to please, for the love of God, handle this because we’re not experts, we don’t have the time to _become_ experts, and this video feels extremely relatable:” Youtube: How we treated AI in 2023 vs 2025 #whiplash #ai #skit #comedy #chatgpt #parody #funny #meme (https://youtu.be/ABJQllCgFVQ?si=SGRr3WPt57Yuankj) Here’s the correct answer… _It honestly doesn’t matter._ The right person for this job probably won’t care what you call them or what their title is. They’ll be too busy using AI as a high-tech drain snake to unclog your business’s spigots. But you do need to call them something, something that can, at the very least, _attract them_ to your business. Example: here’s what we’re calling a role we’re [hiring for right now](https://contrarian-thinking.breezy.hr/p/3f7faebadf25-ai-native-writer-vibecoder): View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/5ee831b7-c7ed-485b-a53b-86eca4c69c33/Screenshot_2026-03-19_at_3.20.46_PM.png?t=1773957257) Caption: Yup, real role. When we sat down to write the job description, we didn’t try to write some sophisticated corporate lingo bingo. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/86ae9e59-a1ad-4a6d-98de-17b3a4d0a3a5/ezgif-18ee8b2f56df35de__1_.gif?t=1773957282) Caption: Instead, we just described exactly what we’d want to see if we were on the other end of the screen: brutal honesty. Here’s the very first bullet under “what your days will look like…” * **BUILD AND CREATE COOL THINGS!** Some other things we called out plainly… The person should be: * Obsessed with vibe coding * Currently building on AI systems * Strong taste - you’ve got opinions and data to back them * Genuinely obsessed with storytelling and short-form content * Comfortable learning fast and iterating based on feedback * Strong grasp of TikTok, X, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts * Ability to recognize viral hooks and repeatable formats * Clear, concise communicator with attention to detail * Organized, proactive, and dependable Game recognizes game. The people we’d want in this role will look at this and know exactly how to prove their merit. They’ll bypass an application, find one of our emails, and send us the vibecoded tool they’re working on that week. Or the reel they posted that went viral last week, and break down why. This is just one role under the “AI Operator” umbrella, specifically focused on content. But it’s not our first AI hire (and likely won’t be the one you should make). Today, we’ll tell you what we call the role you _should_ hire for, and how you can find, vet, and deploy the right person for it. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- **TOGETHER WITH BEEHIIV** ## **Wait, you still don't have a newsletter? What the hell are you waiting for?** We tried half a dozen newsletter platforms. Then we found [beehiiv.](http://www.beehiiv.com/codie?utm_campaign=codie-sanchez-2026-Partnership&utm_medium=newsletter-ads&utm_source=codie-sanchez&utm_term=2026-03-19&stripe_campaign_code=CODIE30) Live shot of our reaction at the time: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c7979d14-5baf-4115-a21c-dd61bba81e7d/Untitled_design_-_2026-03-17T083528.537__1_.png?t=1773957354) Caption: Nothing else came close. And here’s why: Automated tools that grow your audience for you. A global ad network that can connect you to brands like HubSpot and AG1. Plus paid subscriptions with a 0% take, a website builder, analytics, and AI features, all built in seamlessly. Make it pretty, make it simple, make it yours. No designer (or engineer) needed. [beehiiv](http://www.beehiiv.com/codie?utm_campaign=codie-sanchez-2026-Partnership&utm_medium=newsletter-ads&utm_source=codie-sanchez&utm_term=2026-03-19&stripe_campaign_code=CODIE30) just works. That's why we invested in the company. And why we use it every week to send you this very newsletter. **Now for a lil’ treat:** Whether you’re starting a newsletter to connect with customers, neighbors, or the entire internet, **[get 30% off your first 3 months with CODIE30](http://www.beehiiv.com/codie?utm_campaign=codie-sanchez-2026-Partnership&utm_medium=newsletter-ads&utm_source=codie-sanchez&utm_term=2026-03-19&stripe_campaign_code=CODIE30)** ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## Name It and Claim It As we teased above, the best money Codie says she’s ever spent as a CEO... is on an internal AI transformation hire. We’re starting to refer to this archetype as an **“AI Operator”** or a **“CAO” (Chief Automation Officer).** Supreme Leader of Tech-Enabled Productivity is another way to put it, but maybe not the most... inviting. Anyway, their job is this: * Find every unfair advantage AI gives us… and leverage the hell out of it * Build cool, useful AI tools across our business * Evangelize AI across our team (below, we’ll show you a fun way to do it) The guy we hired for this is so great… we now have a whole team of AI-first employees. But remember, the AI Operator is not: * a prompt engineer * a slide-deck strategist * a consultant with a 47-page PDF to share with you …Though they may be great at all those things. The AI Operator is: * an internal builder * obsessed with translating big “what ifs” to “here’s how we can do it in the next hour” * knows how to measure their impact and can explain it Think: **process killer + capability expander + margin enhancer.** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/1e49ab5e-965d-4aed-8e21-195a0dcede95/Inefficiency_2_-_AI-specific__1_.png?t=1773957398) Caption: They’re not the ones asking: **“How can we use AI?” **They’re the technologically deranged ones shouting stuff like this from the rooftops: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/6c54d0be-82e3-4cf7-b1fb-a27772d3a01e/image_-_2026-03-19T175646.466.png?t=1773957417) Caption: If someone at your company is saying things like this, and they’re serious about it, you should do everything in your power to let them. Here’s why (now more than ever)… ## AI Derangement Syndrome Every C-suite exec knows they need to “implement AI.” Heck, they’re the ones seeing the most time-saving benefits from it in their workflows. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/4830b563-3878-468b-9ff5-4709bd678491/Screenshot_2026-03-19_at_2.12.39_PM.png?t=1773957438) Caption: But a lot of their workflows just aren’t the same as their team’s workflows. And when it comes to driving efficiencies _there_, most CEOs don’t have the first clue where to start, especially in SMB land. So what happens quite often now is something like this: * CEO uses AI to summarize things, write emails, analyze a spreadsheet, and take notes * CEO, dazzled by the time saved in THEIR workday, and being marketed an ocean of “magic pill” solutions and tools, tells the team they’re not using AI enough… * CEO fails to actually show them how or give them the space or resources to build with it View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b6eeab1c-834d-404e-8fa3-270406f60cf4/Introvert_with_AI_Meme__1_.jpeg?t=1773957458) Caption: If this resonates, the window to fix it is open right now. But it won’t stay open forever. The days when AI was “nice to have” are already far in the rearview mirror. Jurassicly far. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/17217b39-6c89-4c42-99eb-ab26b8ddf361/image_-_2026-03-19T175752.258.png?t=1773957484) Caption: But many SMBs have barely implemented AI at all because no one owns it. It just gets tossed around like a hot potato. The _real_ alpha is realizing that it all comes back to finding the responsible operator **who will strategically apply these tools across the business.** Silos mean nothing to AI Operators. For them, it’s all about problem solving, and they’re happy to touch _any_ part of the business: **Sales, Operations, Marketing, HR / Admin…** The key: Our team knows that this is meant to empower them. The goal is to _**upgrade**_ our people, offloading menial processes so they can focus on moving the needle. Catnip for an AI Operator: _“I’m overwhelmed! We need to hire someone else to take some of this off my plate.”_ ## How We Actually Hire (Steal This) ### Step 1: How to Find the AI Operator Most business owners are still using Cretaceous Era hiring practices (145-66 million years ago). Evolve or become extinct. You probably won’t easily find AI Operators on resumes. “3-5 years AI experience required” or "Bachelor's in AI required” isn’t it. These people exist _outside_ the basic level of visibility. You’ll find them on spaces like **X (Twitter).** You might even find some on LinkedIn (but less likely). Search “build in public AI,” “automation,” “n8n,” or “Claude workflows.” Look for demos. Scan for shipped work. Often, they don’t call themselves anything like an “AI Operator.” Maybe they’re a Chief of Staff, or an operations junkie. But AI problem-solving is what they’re functionally interested in. **Avoid:** “AI enthusiasts” with nothing to show for it. And when you find a gem, DM them. But **do not** say “We have a role open.” Instead, try this: **“I saw what you built. Holy canolli, that is sick. Want to do that inside a real business?”** ### Step 2: How to Vet the AI Operator At Contrarian Thinking, we hire based on proof. Our President, Marc, is now literally asking every new candidate, regardless of their role, what they’re currently building with AI. It doesn’t need to be some massive project, just show thoughtful intention. (By the way, here are the 4 top rules from our Hiring Playbook) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/625ce6da-b23c-49dd-bdb9-e2f12f794c62/Screenshot_2026-03-19_at_4.19.37_PM.png?t=1773957505) Caption: That’s how we empower our current talent to find more great talent with less exec time wasted. Once we find an AI builder, we run them through an evaluation in Breezy. The flow might look like this: 1. Loom intro: show what you’ve built 2. Work sample: solve a real problem 3. Live iteration: improve it on the fly We take note of their speed, communication, and “ease of shipping.” If someone can’t ship easily under light pressure, they won’t produce inside our business. ### Step 3: How to Deploy the AI Operator Most companies make the same mistake. They hire someone like this… then tether them to one department. **NO. Bad. F-minus. Zero points.** The AI Operator should focus on specific projects at a given time, but work a_cross_ departmental lines to: 1. **Audit** 2. **Design systems** 3. **Ship** ### Then have them run an internal AI Hackathon Recently, we did. And it was (potentially) one of the **most transformative, highest ROI** things we’ve ever done because of the “awakening” across the team. **Step 1 is getting your leader.** This needs to be the AI Operator (or whoever is most genuinely interested in AI at your company.) They should also plan a fun, brief presentation for the beginning of the hackathon, to get everyone on the same page and seeing the larger picture. Ours was all about the history of AI. In advance, the leader should send a message with the game plan to the team so everyone knows what to expect coming in. Then, rock and roll. The goal isn’t perfection but rather seeing what’s possible in 4 hours and identifying which ideas deserve development. Oh, and it helps if your hackathon leader has a nerdy sense of humor. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/41fc6d8c-1c4a-4c89-859d-17827847d44f/image_-_2026-03-19T175833.758.png?t=1773957523) Caption: Here’s a nice blurry photo of our hackathon crew in action: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/f8ad38f6-cf6f-4452-85fa-1754afbc9300/Untitled_design_-_2026-03-19T163521.397__1_.png?t=1773957541) Caption: See, a lot of founders are **missing the point** of tools like Claude. Don’t think about who you can replace with it. Use it to create more builders in your org. Give your team ways to make their job easier, more productive, and more fun. If you’re the entrepreneur, create **intrapreneurs** in your business. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e62f85b1-646a-489a-92c5-c377eef69cce/CT_NL_31926_Graphics.png?t=1773957565) Caption: The next decade’s winners will be the businesses that: * Assign clear automation leadership * Let curious people experiment without fear * Turn employees into builders (not button-clickers) That’s how you eventually 10x productivity without burning people out. That’s how you make work more fun. That’s how small businesses punch way above their weight. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a478efe0-eaf8-4dda-bb0b-6cefd2da2097/Archimedes_Quote__1_.png?t=1773957588) Caption: So steal this. Name your CAO. Run the hackathon. See what breaks. See what surprises you. Just 1 hire and 4 hours are enough to change how your business does business forever. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **DOPAMINE HIT** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/2ac4d67c-3803-4d6d-a141-a404a8b83595/Screenshot_2026-03-19_at_6.01.38_PM.png?t=1773957705) Follow image link: (https://x.com/Codie_Sanchez/status/2031537956305920138?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2031537956305920138%7Ctwgr%5E07d785b41d9100915e24874e6deb3ed2ed8c3dd4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.notion.so%2Fcontrarianthinking%2FAI-Transformation-Hire-326b87cc354080c6862bca77473ceefd) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/how-we-built-an-ai-first-business-and-how-you-can-too

---------- View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/5f7c68d3-b5d6-4132-8cc0-b3e108469c55/CT_NL_21926_Thumbnail__3___1_.png?t=1772148647) Caption: ----------America is fighting a civil war. No one "declared" it. Few are working to end it. And the side that's winning might not even realize it's in it. There are no clear deaths in this war. But there are casualties. Economic ones. Millions of them. The story is right there in the numbers, if you're willing to look. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b68ce13e-4763-4413-9164-980bf67733c3/Screenshot_2026-02-26_at_11.10.03_AM__1___1_.png?t=1772146289) Caption: In 1989, Americans over 70 held 19% of total household wealth in this country. By 2025, that number had grown to 32%. Younger Americans have watched their portion slip. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b5a746bd-a049-4cd5-b5d7-dce51a172c94/Screenshot_2026-02-26_at_11.09.21_AM__1_.png?t=1772146304) Caption: But here's what makes this a war and not just an economic trend: the conditions that produced this gap didn't appear from nowhere. They’ve been voted into existence over many decades. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/7a148304-9d4d-48dc-ac1a-f38e458dfa39/Screenshot_2026-02-26_at_5.39.24_PM.png?t=1772146315) Caption: When you show up for elections, you show up in policy. Federal spending on elderly programs ran at roughly 6% of GDP in 1990. By 2025, it had reached over 9%. The Congressional Budget Office projects it crossing 11% within a decade. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/edf23fce-22a6-4782-b1b8-9e488ee55a78/Screenshot_2026-02-26_at_11.09.45_AM__1_.png?t=1772146331) Caption: WSJ Those programs, plus the interest on the debt they generate, are now one of the single biggest drivers of the federal deficit. This trend is now being referred to as “Total Boomer Luxury Communism.” View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ab0744ce-4bae-4889-91aa-65d59f904fc9/Screenshot_2026-02-26_at_5.39.30_PM.png?t=1772146353) Caption: “The elderly are mostly out of the job market and thus need not worry about being replaced by artificial intelligence. The majority own their homes, often debt-free. Everyone worries about health costs, but the elderly have publicly funded Medicare. None of this is true for young generations,” says the Wall Street Journal. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/dd69292d-e56c-4b63-98c1-0267d4c08706/Screenshot_2026-02-26_at_11.30.00_AM.png?t=1772146399) Caption: The Social Security trust fund peaked at $2.7 trillion in 2017. It has been declining ever since and is projected to run dry around 2033. The likely fixes — higher taxes, reduced future benefits, a later retirement age — will fall on the younger generation of workers. ## Causes, symptoms, and side effects In 1960, it is estimated that over half of 30-year-olds in America were both married and owned a home. Today, that number is around 13%. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/794af1cb-7dfc-44d0-af40-f769179677f1/image_-_2026-02-26T173906.953__1_.png?t=1772146418) Caption: [@NatHalberstadt](https://x.com/NatHalberstadt/status/1951635776900415724) There are now more homebuyers over 70 than under 35. To understand how it happened, you need to understand what buying a home used to require: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/2e4d18b9-1c31-407a-b880-0ef33c253737/Screenshot_2026-02-26_at_5.39.44_PM.png?t=1772146522) Follow image link: (https://x.com/historyinmemes/status/1767801821303627958) Caption: Okay, not quite. But it _was_ different then compared to what it is today: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/949cf94e-2aad-4e68-a059-7b921177824f/image_-_2026-02-26T173903.651__1_.png?t=1772146627) Caption: In 1960, the overwhelming majority of young homebuying couples got there on a single income. By 2024, nearly two-thirds of young married couples had two full-time incomes. Why the difference? In 1980, American housing often had a price-to-income ratio under 3x. Today it's more like 5x to 8x. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c989c371-d41d-4b99-8671-0a2e99b15b40/ezgif.com-animated-gif-maker__6___1___1_.gif?t=1772146648) Caption: And because home equity is still the primary way Americans build wealth, locking a generation out of ownership is not just a housing crisis. It's a retirement crisis, a family formation crisis, and the clearest front line of this war. But it’s not the _only_ line. Younger generations are spending dramatically more on “the big stuff” than previous generations, without seeing their wages keep up. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a00e4278-033e-4c3a-b3ed-1b5846481895/image_-_2026-02-26T173857.471__1_.png?t=1772146674) Caption: The consequences show up in the confidence data… which is not looking very confident. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/2cb9d4d7-8c7a-4e0d-aaa6-5540667ddb7d/Screenshot_2026-02-26_at_11.28.27_AM__1_.png?t=1772146689) Caption: That the share of 26-year-olds investing in the stock market (good) or speculative assets like Fartcoin (bad) is rising shouldn’t surprise you. Locked out of the housing ladder, they’re routing capital into markets that are still accessible to them. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- **FROM OUR FRIENDS AT BEEHIIV** ## **1 thing everyone agrees on: it’s damn nice to own something.** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/d4bdbda5-11ed-462b-a882-03c0bf05d65f/ad_image_2__1___1___1_.png?t=1772146702) Caption: Social media is fun and all… until they change the algo at 2pm on a random Tuesday and half your reach disappears. Newsletters give you something social media never will: actual ownership of your audience. We send Contrarian Thinking to 100s of thousands of people. We use (and invested in) [beehiiv](http://www.beehiiv.com/codie?utm_campaign=codie-sanchez-2026-Partnership&utm_medium=newsletter-ads&utm_source=codie-sanchez&utm_term=2026-02-26&stripe_campaign_code=CODIE30) for 2 reasons: they’ve thought of everything, and they make our lives wayyyyy easier. It’s all the infrastructure we could ever need: * Wildly helpful analytics * A global ad network that brings sponsors to you * An actually-good newsletter and website builder (no design skills needed) * Growth tools, ridiculously good customer support, fair pricing …plus, 0% take on earnings. Get started in minutes and **[use the code CODIE30 for 30% off for 3 months](http://www.beehiiv.com/codie?utm_campaign=codie-sanchez-2026-Partnership&utm_medium=newsletter-ads&utm_source=codie-sanchez&utm_term=2026-02-26&stripe_campaign_code=CODIE30)** ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## **How This War Ends, and How YOU Can Help** ### **1. First, as always, we need to build more housing.** If you want to understand the next decade of politics, economics, and culture wars, start with this chart: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/af1b322a-ca39-4700-b92d-d8facc8b4089/image__19_.jpg?t=1772146798) Caption: What feels like prosperity for one generation has felt like punishment for the other. Every city that has actually fixed this problem the right way, did it one way: they built more. Seriously, it’s _that_ straightforward. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/545d3d3b-25d4-49ec-ac17-3cc57b3fcda8/image__18_.jpg?t=1772146814) Caption: And right now, there’s no better place to look than to Austin, Texas, to see this economic theory being put into practice. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/80d163ca-db19-4088-8620-27f2e3e40f3b/image__17_.jpg?t=1772146834) Caption: The city is one of the fastest-growing in the country. And yet, the cost to live there is… falling. In 2024, Austin was adding homes at a **lightning pace**, roughly _9 times faster_ than cities like San Francisco and LA. (Btw, we’re hiring in Austin, with over a dozen full-time openings in operations, strategy, and creative roles. You can view our careers page **[here](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/careers?_bhlid=a3d4e7642398bb3cee54a188efe7978e9b658fb4)**.) ### **2. Next, take AI seriously as a Social Security strategy.** AI and robotic automation may be the only realistic answer to growing productivity despite our shrinking labor pool, saving our social programs in the process. The only way a system designed for a 4-to-1 worker-beneficiary ratio survives at a 2-to-1 rate is if each of those remaining workers produces dramatically more than their predecessors did. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/05bf8115-d7d2-4e48-be9f-e43b2356641c/Screenshot_2026-02-26_at_11.30.20_AM__1_.png?t=1772146865) Caption: That is not a conservative or liberal position. It is math. And the only credible path to that kind of productivity leap runs directly through AI and robotic automation. Every worker who learns to wield these tools for good isn't just helping themselves. They are, quite literally, being a patriotic citizen. Policy, education, and business investment should be oriented around deploying these tools so that benefits and wealth are felt broadly and quickly. ### **3. And finally… Boomers: When ready, sell your businesses to someone young and hungry.** We certainly _don’t_ expect the younger generations to stop chasing ownership. But they may decide to change _what_ they try to own first. If the old path was to buy a house _then_ build wealth, the new path **might actually be the opposite**: build wealth through business ownership, then choose to buy a house later if it makes sense for you. Right now, the largest cohort of small business owners in American history is retiring. We believe there will be a patriotic bunch who do their part by intentionally selling their business to younger, hungry Americans, passing the torch of ownership onto the next generation and preserving their own wealth in the process. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/666dc786-8a2e-43ab-a267-2d2eefb43c7e/ChatGPT_Image_Feb_26__2026__06_09_31_PM__1_.png?t=1772147408) Caption: That is generational wealth at its best. And that is how you end the war. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- **COMING UP** ## Get the clarity you need to scale your business. At our _Growth Accelerator Workshop_ on March 24th-26th, you’ll get 3 days in Austin with Codie Sanchez, our team of operators, and a room of serious owners identifying exactly where growth is hiding in your business. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/d2fa622d-8bf1-4d21-8756-e60ea2c4cee9/image__1_.jpg?t=1772147990) Caption: Early bird pricing ends soon. **[Seats are limited. Learn more.](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/growth-accelerator-workshop?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=growth_accelerator_workshop_2026)** ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/america-s-hidden-civil-war

Sales skills are going to be more valuable than ever, and most people are getting worse at them. Not "yeah, I could use some brushing up" worse. Like, measurably, statistically, foundationally worse: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/0b4bbdda-96b4-4f3a-a74a-09d4255e575c/image_-_2026-02-19T163908.740__1_.png?t=1771537951) Caption: We're all becoming phone-obsessed weirdos who can't maintain eye contact for more than six seconds. So the question you should be asking yourself right now is: _Okay, what if I just got really good at the thing everyone else is getting bad at?_ Whether you like it or not, everything is sales, and everyone is in sales. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/4c4fdfbd-eaab-4f15-aab5-57ed012ee25f/CT_NL_21926_Graphics__2_.png?t=1771538256) Caption: Getting hired is sales. Getting a budget approved is sales. Getting promoted is sales. Getting someone to join your team is sales. Raising money is sales. Getting a team behind your idea is sales. Buying a business is sales. Growing a business is sales. Building an audience is sales. Marketing is sales. Convincing your kid to eat vegetables is sales. Strip away the semantics, and it’s all the same thing: building trust, communicating value, closing. The economy is (increasingly) rewarding people getting better at this and punishing people who aren't, and that reality is only going to snowball. As AI makes **building** anything easier, **selling** anything will be harder. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/910a48cd-db14-4d4d-8f53-e28639d7c8be/Screenshot_2026-02-19_at_4.48.47_PM.png?t=1771537783) Follow image link: (https://x.com/lennysan/status/2024351835142943077?s=20) Caption: ## “GET GOOD AT SELLING OR FACE THE WRATH OF AI. MWAHAHAHA” -the market, if it could talk The economy has been shifting for decades toward rewarding sales skills. It’s about to go into hyperdrive, and many people still haven't caught on. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/99bee64e-cadc-4702-9caf-68f224a97fd5/Screenshot_2026-02-19_at_4.49.05_PM.png?t=1771537764) Follow image link: (https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/2010432733374513402?s=20) Caption: Here's what makes sales different from almost every other skillset: it creates the potential for non-linear outcomes. And we’re about to dive headfirst into the age of non-linear work. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/11119fd0-835d-4b40-b326-f3d93f376b43/image_-_2026-02-19T163931.332__1_.png?t=1771537696) Caption: Look at the macro picture. Labor's share of economic output is at the lowest point since the late 1940s. The old deal (trade time for money, save it, retire) is breaking. Asset prices have exploded, wages have stayed flat. If you're only trading your time for money (unless you’re the top 1% in your field), you’re on the wrong side of the equation, babe. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ffb97662-dee0-4251-848f-12463be28ca4/image_-_2026-02-19T163932.927__1_.png?t=1771537676) Caption: That’s why we believe so much in the importance of ownership. Ownership enables non-linear returns. Your outcome isn't capped by hours in a day. The upside isn't predetermined. The same is true with selling. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/cd6c3627-6850-4194-84fe-3d977293d1a9/Salary__5___1_.png?t=1771537661) Caption: To be clear, being good at “selling” doesn’t mean you have to be a salesperson. Just like being “technical” doesn’t mean you have to be a coder. It’s just a description of what you’re capable of. * _Are you good at understanding what someone actually needs?_ * _Are you good at communicating value?_ * _Are you good at building trust?_ * _Are you good at handling objections?_ * _Are you good at getting someone to say yes?_ That's what we mean by “sales.” It’s a capability. For years, being “technical” was the killer capability. * _Are you capable of analyzing the data?_ * _Are you capable of creating the model?_ * _Are you capable of writing the code?_ * _Are you capable of building the product?_ * _Are you capable of doing the quantitative research?_ That capability made people valuable. Economically visible. Hard to replace. If you could do this stuff, you held all the cards. It’s still very valuable to be technical, but people are starting to realize being “technical” alone won’t be enough. For 2 decades, we told kids that coding alone was the only thing worth focusing on… Until we rug-pulled them overnight. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/7ea32ed1-8699-4f17-8b2b-25a8a5249a12/CT_NL_21926_Graphics__1_.png?t=1771537621) Caption: The reality all along was that building + selling was the killer capability. As things get automated bit by bit, the harder parts are going to be figuring out what to build, how to distribute it, and how to make money from it. There will be less hiding behind "I did X," and more standing behind "I did X, here's why, and here's how it’s going to create value." You can't just point to sheer output anymore. You have to show people why it matters. You have to _sell_ it. ## We built an 8-figure business on this insight One of our foundational sales playbooks is almost embarrassingly simple. Instead of building a product and then begging people to trust us, we built trust first. The steps fit on a napkin: 1. Get someone’s email 2. Send them something useful/fun/cool 3. Don’t be annoying 4. Occasionally tell them about something we offer 5. Repeat forever Groundbreaking stuff, we know. Point is: every email you ever send is an act of selling. And that is what took us from $0 —> 8-figure brand. To make it all work, we run our newsletters on [beehiiv](http://www.beehiiv.com/codie?utm_campaign=codie-sanchez-2026-Partnership&utm_medium=newsletter-ads&utm_source=codie-sanchez&utm_term=2026-02-19&stripe_campaign_code=CODIE30). View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/f1c6acb4-eeba-479f-8f3f-d5d457006d9d/ad_image_5__1___1_.png?t=1771537598) Caption: Fun fact: we actually invested in the company. We saw what the team was cooking up, knew we’d end up being customers, wrote a check, then migrated our entire list over. Turns out our thesis was right because what [beehiiv](http://www.beehiiv.com/codie?utm_campaign=codie-sanchez-2026-Partnership&utm_medium=newsletter-ads&utm_source=codie-sanchez&utm_term=2026-02-19&stripe_campaign_code=CODIE30) is doing is kind of absurd. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/1660d9e9-3576-4962-870b-502695e5f1d2/Screenshot_2026-02-16_at_10.40.42_AM__1_.png?t=1771537586) Caption: * Want to **monetize** from day one? They’ll bring you ad deals. * No one knows you exist yet? Their recommendation **network** fixes that. * Need a sexy **website** for all your content and digital **products**? Only takes minutes. * Want to **automate** the entire thing and **personalize** it at scale? Done. And the team. THE TEAM. These people are animals. Doesn’t matter if you’re a solo creator, a small business, or a major publisher. You’ll often see Tyler (the CEO) responding to customer feedback at hours that suggest he either doesn't sleep or is actually 2 people in a trench coat. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a1af3f35-7137-4f75-a03a-c4162c1015df/funny-silly.gif?t=1771537440) Caption: Anyway, the beehiiv folks wanted to hook our readers up and give you something useful. ---------- If you've been sitting on a newsletter idea, or your current newsletter setup makes you want to karate chop your laptop in half, go to: **[beehiiv.com/codie](https://beehiiv.com/codie)**, and use code **CODIE30 for 30% off for 3 months**. ----------By the way… that’s the entire point. Beehiiv selling us on their vision. Us selling them on an investment. Open rates, click rates. You trusting us enough to read the part where we obviously plug something (but make it interesting)… It’s all sales at the end of the day. And it’s only going to get more critical that you learn how to do it. ## What to actually do about this in your life We're massively biased, but here's a 3-step guide we'd recommend you start with: ### 1. Build distribution channels now Not once you have something to sell. Today. Your newsletter, your network, your reputation. These take years. Products now take days. Do the math. ### 2. Study up on fundamentals The whole stack. Understanding psychology. Building trust. Communicating value. Reading the room. Handling objections. Get good at phone calls, at handshakes, at walking into rooms and making people want to work with you. ### 3. Learn dealmaking and build ownership Buying a business is sales all the way down. Simply learning _how_ to do it will make you more effective at your job because you’ll understand how value gets created and captured, how businesses actually make money, what owners really care about, and how to spot opportunities everyone else misses. **(If that interests you, we’re hosting ****[Main Street Millionaire Live](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026)**** TOMORROW with thousands of people learning exactly this. Not theory. Not get-rich-quick garbage. The actual mechanics of how deals work. You quite literally have a few hours left to secure your spot.)** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c9747203-8136-4cc8-80cf-122793fec3de/MSM_NL_112525__11___1___1___1_.png?t=1771537465) Caption: The gap between people who can sell and people who can't is getting wider every day. Most people still don't see it. It’s time to pick which side you want to be on. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- **DOPAMINE HIT** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a479424b-b7bb-44f9-945c-d663271e08ea/Screenshot_2026-02-19_at_5.02.39_PM.png?t=1771538581) Caption: ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/you-d-better-get-good-at-selling

“**“There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.”**“ — **Frédéric Bastiat (1850)** Nothing has just one consequence. That’s the idea behind 1st, 2nd, and 3rd-order thinking… _Thinking about consequences_. French economist Frédéric Bastiat was writing about this almost 200 years ago. “The first [effect]… is immediate,” he says. “It appears simultaneously with its cause; **it is seen**. The other effects emerge only subsequently; **they are not seen**; we are fortunate if we foresee them.” View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b8382058-692c-4540-ae2d-fac55efb5a48/CT_NL_2526_Graphics__4___1_.png?t=1770930437) Caption: Nearly 2 centuries later, billionaire investor Ray Dalio calls this one of the most important principles of success in life: ““People who overweigh the first-order consequences of their decisions and ignore the effects of second- and subsequent-order consequences rarely reach their goals.”“ — 1st and 2nd-order consequences often have “**opposite desirabilities**,” he says, “resulting in big mistakes in decision making.” Or as Bastiat puts it: “It almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa.” Like going to the gym. Pain _first_, abs _second_. Or the 11 pm drive-thru run. First-order: _transcendent_. Second-order: _why the hell did I do that?_ Dalio and Bastiat would tell you that nature usually penalizes the people who stop at that first order. Especially if you're building anything right now, first-order thinking won't cut it. And honestly, the second and third-order stuff is way more fun to think about anyway. Here's what we mean. ## **AI CapEx** In 2026, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon alone will spend ungodly amounts of money on AI infrastructure. Like, around $75,000,000 every hour. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/2e6459ae-06f5-46d6-a771-2edc5d35395c/image_-_2026-02-12T160726.156__1_.png?t=1770930497) Caption: * **First-order take:** it’s a great time to be in the data center construction business. * **Second-order take:** it’s a great time to be in the mobile toilet business, specializing in data center construction sites. * **Third-order take:** these data center buildouts will eventually make AI cheaper and more accessible for everyone. And historically, when you do that, demand doesn’t hold steady. It explodes. ### This is called Jevons Paradox. 19th-century economist William Stanley Jevons noticed that when coal technology got more efficient, total coal consumption went up, not down. More efficiency created more demand. Often it creates more jobs, too, in unexpected ways. As Box CEO Aaron Levie put it: _“If you described Figma or Google Adwords to someone in the 1970s, they'd have predicted marketing jobs would collapse. One person could suddenly do what used to take a whole team. But there were a few hundred thousand marketing-related jobs in the US in the 1970s. Today? Low millions…”_ **How?** _“Because advertising went from being something only your CPGs and car companies could afford to something any small business could participate in… More efficiency didn't kill demand. It created a massive new class of participants.”_ We expect similar things to happen with AI. ## **The Trades** Everyone’s heard the take by now: trades are AI-proof. Plumbers, electricians, HVAC techs. Safe forever. And we agree - to a point. AI won’t “replace plumbers” anytime soon. But don’t be so sure about “forever.” Even the trades will look different in the future… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c7805d4f-0247-459c-915d-15ac95982c9a/Screenshot_2026-02-12_at_4.30.48_PM.png?t=1770931901) Follow image link: (https://x.com/Codie_Sanchez/status/2021593621703557206?s=20) Caption: As for the near-term second-order effects of AI, investor Michael Burry (AKA, this guy from _The Big Short_…) recently made an interesting point. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/70ddf013-7d25-45a9-8dd6-fa585f574c4d/image_-_2026-02-12T160729.085__1_.png?t=1770930514) Caption: A middle-class homeowner facing an $800 plumber call, he says, might now prefer to snap a photo, ask an AI what to do, and try handling it themselves. Obviously, that only works for the simplest stuff. But at scale, it could create a K-shaped split: * Ultra-simple service calls, the kind AI can walk a homeowner through, shrink. * Complex, high-skilled, "please fix this ASAP" work? Stays highly valuable. The top end of the trades pulls away from the bottom. Again, just a second-order theory. But it’s the reason why highly profitable “**Lindy businesses**” are having such a moment right now. The longer something has been around, the longer it is likely to be around. And it’s why memes like this go so viral: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/89a37b5a-f3ed-4550-a183-24ac588e594a/Screenshot_2026-02-12_at_4.30.57_PM.png?t=1770931958) Caption: _Because it’s true._ A 27-year-old HVAC company in Omaha with no website isn't sexy. But if your furnace goes out next week, AI isn’t going to replace it. Technicians will. ## Self-Driving Cars Remember our friend Frédéric? Here’s another banger he wrote: “"The bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil."“ — Self-driving cars might be the purest example of this playing out in real time. The near-term evil: Uber drivers losing their jobs. That's the first-order effect everyone fixates on, and it is unfortunately going to be painful. But have you thought about the good to come? Consider this. Through September 2025, Waymo cars have driven 127 million rider-only miles without a human driver. Here’s the safety record: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b50733ff-4182-4c60-a055-1bfe7a6a906a/Screenshot_2026-02-11_at_10.19.10_PM.png?t=1770930536) Caption: **The second-order effect?** If every vehicle in the US drove like this, we would prevent tens of thousands of deaths every year and likely save trillions of dollars across society. That includes our healthcare systems, which see around 3 million emergency visits every year for motor vehicle crashes. **A third-order effect?** Auto insurance completely changes. That’s already starting. Lemonade Insurance just announced a 50% rate cut for Tesla vehicles when Full Self-Driving is active. They even make use of second-order thinking in their marketing. Take a look: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/15cabde7-e850-4ae3-ad75-d6ded15d7b0a/__Screenshot_2026-02-12_at_9.52.00_AM.png__attachment6b98c24f-5e70-4709-aa54-7d0b5cff28fdScreenshot_2026-02-12_at_9.52.00_AM.png___1_.png?t=1770930572) Caption: Their co-founder put it plainly: “A car that sees 360 degrees, never gets drowsy, and reacts in milliseconds can’t be compared to a human.” ### Other self-driving 3rd-order effects: * Fewer car accidents mean fewer deaths. Does that mean a serious organ donor shortage? * People may be willing to live much further from cities, reshaping real estate values in both directions * Bars, restaurants, and nightlife could boom when nobody has to worry about driving home * Elderly independence goes way up, which could reshape senior care * Parking lots and garages near city centers become newly developable real estate * DUI lawyers, traffic cops, driving schools, body shops... entire cottage industries start shrinking (…and new ones grow in unexpected ways) One technology. Hundreds of sectors reshuffled. ## **A few more ideas to chew on** ### 1. Spam & AI automation Nikita Bier (the Head of Product at X) made a prediction this week: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8623a9dc-3979-4605-bff6-e9eac9c73db4/Screenshot_2026-02-12_at_4.31.06_PM.png?t=1770932002) Caption: If that happens, what becomes more valuable? Cybersecurity. Real relationships. Warm intros. Handshakes. Verifiable trust. ### 2. Photography One recent survey found 58% of professional photographers in the UK had lost an assignment to AI by early 2025. Headshots, product shots, stock images, real estate photos. All are getting disrupted. But weddings, news, sports, nature, and high-end photography? All could become more valuable precisely because of the human involvement and proof of reality. ### 3. Loneliness The one nobody wants to talk about. Loneliness is quietly becoming one of the most potent economic forces in the country. In 2023, Americans aged 15 to 29 spent 45% more time alone than they did in 2010. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/9797ff45-db21-4bae-b36c-910dc40980bd/image_-_2026-02-12T160742.429__1_.png?t=1770930593) Caption: In the coming years, businesses that create genuine human connections are going to have a massive tailwind behind them… as are those that capitalize on people’s loneliness in the wrong ways. ## **Building for the ripples** So what actually holds up in a world where the landscape keeps shifting? One thing is EQ. Since 1980, people with high social skills have seen steady gains in both employment and wages, regardless of their math ability. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/3a4f47a0-b991-42c9-b680-4d31cbdfc315/image_-_2026-02-12T160746.406__1_.png?t=1770930610) Caption: People with low social skills? Flat or declining, even if their math skills are strong. That trend was already accelerating before AI. It's probably about to go into overdrive. The other thing is **adaptability**. AI models that exist today will be obsolete in a year. Get comfortable learning new tools fast. And that’s it. These things, along with ownership in a business, are the closest things to a durable advantage that exists right now. Practically, this means: * Experiment constantly, even when the current thing is working. * Talk to people in industries that aren't yours. * Pay attention to what's changing up and downstream. * Build relationships before you need them. **And now we want to hear from you:** _What second-order effects are you seeing that nobody is talking about yet? What industries are about to get reshuffled in ways people aren't expecting? Reply and let us know._ Some of the best ideas we write about come straight from you. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### REMINDER ### **Only 1 week left until we see you. ** February 20-22, we’re showing you the complete roadmap to getting started with business buying. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c1ed916a-6c9e-47ea-a2d8-ea92b00e0c81/MSM_NL_112525__7_.png?t=1770932892) Caption: It’s our most comprehensive live virtual training yet. [Save your spot ASAP](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026). ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- **DOPAMINE HIT** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c0301a11-3b39-4a5b-883c-bba25d6a251f/Screenshot_2026-02-12_at_4.45.28_PM.png?t=1770932757) Caption: ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/how-waymo-onlyfans-and-a-27-year-old-hvac-business-explain-the-future

——————————————————————————— Folks, we work with hundreds of scaling business owners every day. Most people run their business until they're miserable… And then they try to sell it. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fef25494-39d9-4db9-8868-cb1c2e5d109a/image.png?t=1770332101) Caption: Don't be most people. Build a business so it's sellable… and you'll never have to sell. ### **The Backwards Approach: Start with the End in Mind** Here's the secret to building a sellable business: You need to work backwards from what makes a business valuable in a buyer's eyes. When you understand what buyers are looking for, you can design your business to be valuable whether you **sell it** or **keep it**. Because the qualities that make a business attractive to buyers are often the same ones that make it attractive to you as an owner. ---------- 🗓️ **Time is running out:** In just 15 days, we’re giving you the _complete roadmap_ to buying a business in our [most valuable virtual event ever](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026). ----------### **How Buyers Think About Value** To build something valuable, you need to understand how buyers calculate what they'll pay. Let's break it down. **The 4 things everyone will want to audit…** * **Simplicity check:** If you can't explain what you do in one clear sentence, you probably can't systematize it. Complexity might impress people, but it doesn't transfer well. * **The bus test:** Imagine you vanish tomorrow. What percentage of operations continue normally? If the answer is close to zero, you're selling a job, not an asset. (That’s fine for some, just be honest about it.) * **Dependency scan:** Look at your top customer, your critical supplier, and your key employee. If losing any single one would crater the business, that's a vulnerability worth addressing. * **Value definition:** What's actually changing hands in a sale? The clearer you can articulate this (equipment, customer relationships, processes, brand), the more confident buyers become. As you build, keep asking yourself these questions. ### **The Recipe for a Great Multiple** Want to sell your business for a premium multiple? Here's what matters most: * **Be profitable.** No profits, no sale. * **Be growing.** Upward trajectory commands premium pricing. * **Be diversified.** Multiple customers, channels, and products reduce risk. * **Be predictable.** Recurring revenue + steady growth. People want to be able to forecast. Get these right and buyers will be confident in what they’re buying. Buyers can overlook slow growth or some customer concentration, but they probably won't pay a great multiple for it. **The bottom line:** Profitability alone is necessary but not sufficient for a great multiple. Consider two businesses that have $500K profit but different margins: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ea26429f-501f-4388-a4dc-30cfe52dc45b/CT_NL_2526_Graphics.png?t=1770319112) Caption: Both produce the same $500K outcome, but Business B is far more efficient and has great room for error. ### **The SDE Formula: How Main Street Buyers Calculate Value** For Main Street businesses (roughly $500K to $5M in revenue), buyers use a metric called Seller's Discretionary Earnings (SDE) to determine the value the business generates for them. **SDE is considered the true earning power of your business.** It's what you'd make if you owned the company debt-free, worked in it full-time, paid yourself $0, and only paid necessary expenses. It's the maximum theoretical earnings in a normal year. Let's walk through an example for an HVAC business. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/487af182-81dc-4471-b403-5f5df56503a2/CT_NL_2526_Graphics__1_.png?t=1770319950) Caption: Notice how the net profit of $85,000 transforms into SDE of $201,000. That's 2.4X higher. This is why understanding SDE is critical _both_ for building and valuing a business effectively. **One layer of nuance:** In this example, we’re “adding back” the owner's salary because the buyer is going to be doing the work. ### **The Multiple: What Determines Your Final Value** Once you have your SDE, buyers multiply it by a number (the multiple) to arrive at your business value. Here are some typical ranges: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/d66b1949-94cf-4556-9b62-43ddabd7b450/CT_NL_2526_Graphics__2_.png?t=1770320139) Caption: **Using our HVAC example:** With $201,000 in SDE, let's say this business earns a 3.2X multiple based on industry comparables and its specific strengths. That means: **$201,000 SDE × 3.2 multiple = $643,200 business value** But that’s just a generalized estimate. Where your business specifically lands depends on quality factors we'll cover soon. ### **The Seller’s Reality Check** Buyers will be doing quick napkin math to think practically about whether the deal makes financial sense. They’ll ask: Can I make a living, service the debt (if using an SBA loan), and still have a margin for error? **Back to our HVAC example:** Annual SDE $201,000 Less: Owner salary needs ($75,000) Less: Debt service (SBA loan at ~$515K, 10 years, 11%) ($85,000) **Remaining cushion** **$41,000** That's about a 20% cushion, which sounds relatively workable, but the actual numbers are very tight. For example, $40k is not enormous in the scheme of things. Regardless, buyers typically want to see 25% or more for safety. This math has to work for your ideal valuation to be realistic in the market. ## **Now Let’s Build Your Sellable Business** These are the building blocks that make your business more valuable. Buyers look for: * Higher than normal profit margins * Recurring revenue (contracts, subscriptions, retainers) * Documented systems and processes * Strong reputation and online presence * Newer equipment and updated technology * Diversified customer base (no concentration risk) * Growth trajectory (SDE increasing year over year) * Low owner dependency (business runs “without” you present) Start building toward them today, and place significant focus on these: ### **1. Diversify Everything (The 15% Rule)** Diversification is about reducing risk, and buyers will pay more for lower-risk businesses. **The 15% Rule:** Aim for no single client to represent more than 15% of your revenue. If it makes sense, apply the same thinking to product lines and key suppliers. **Example:** If you have $1M in annual revenue, your largest client should ideally represent no more than $150K. If one client makes up $400K of your revenue, that's 40% concentration. It's a red flag. Work intentionally to diversify. If one client leaves or one product becomes obsolete, your business keeps running. ### **2. Build Recurring Revenue** Revenue is essential. Predictable revenue is valuable. Recurring contracts, subscriptions, retainers, and maintenance agreements transform your cash flow from lumpy to smooth. **Example:** That HVAC company with $201K SDE? If 30% of their revenue came from recurring service contracts instead of one-time installs, their multiple might jump from 3.2X to 3.8X. That's an extra $120K in multiple value. Always look to find ways to convert one-time transactions into ongoing relationships. ### **3. Reduce Owner Dependency** A business that collapses without you isn't sellable. Period. Work toward a state where if you disappeared tomorrow, _most_ things would still get done. This means hiring capable people, delegating responsibility, documenting processes, and building systems. It also might mean creating incentives (equity, profit sharing, bonuses) to retain key people post-sale. **Think of it this way:** The more the business needs you specifically, the riskier it is (and the less it's probably worth) to someone else. ### **4. Optimize for Cash Flow** Buyers want businesses that generate cash, not businesses that consume it. Do everything you can to optimize cash flow: * Get paid upfront or require deposits * Shorten payment terms (net 30 instead of net 60) * Cut unnecessary expenses * Negotiate better terms with suppliers * Manage inventory efficiently ### **5. Maintain Growth or Stability** If your SDE is climbing year over year, you're golden. Buyers pay premiums for momentum and positive trajectories. The opposite is also true. If your numbers are erratic or declining, they'll question everything, discount heavily, or walk away. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bc9b15df-bda2-4d16-9b66-46cb51c24eb6/CT_NL_2526_Graphics__3_.png?t=1770321002) Caption: **Critical reminder:** Once you enter a deal process, don't take your footoff the gas. Any dip in performance will be noticed, extrapolated, and questioned. Keep selling, keep executing. ### **6. Invest in Systems and Technology** Buyers love businesses that run on systems. Better technology, documented workflows, clean books, professional websites, and modern equipment all signal that your business is mature and stable. The more systematized, the less risky it looks. ### **7. Build Strong Margins** If your margins are higher than the industry average, your multiple goes up. Focus on operational efficiency. Cut waste. Optimize pricing. Improve your value proposition so you can charge more. Fat margins don’t guarantee it, but they signal a risk-averse business, and they’re especially appealing to a buyer who will likely have to use an SBA loan to acquire your business. ## Here's the beautiful irony When you build a business that's designed to sell, you often end up with a business you never _want_ to sell. A business with recurring revenue, diversified clients, strong systems, low owner dependency, and healthy cash flow is a business that runs well, scales easily, and gives you freedom. Work backwards from what buyers want. Build those qualities into your business. And whether you sell or keep it, _you win_. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- 🤝 **Want to learn how to buy a business?** We’re giving you the complete roadmap to getting started in our most comprehensive live training yet. Happening virtually in 15 days. [Save your spot ASAP](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026). ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- **DOPAMINE HIT** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c4114a5b-d0e8-4917-8a48-1c193fb62b42/Screenshot_2026-02-05_at_1.13.23_PM.png?t=1770315236) Caption: ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/the-ultimate-guide-to-building-a-sellable-business

In life, most people obsess over the cost of taking the wrong action. Not enough people focus on the cost of taking **no action at all**. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/594ebda6-3cdd-4d68-98d2-39524612290f/image.png?t=1769723345) Caption: **Inaction** is quietly destroying some of the smartest minds we know. Below, we’re going to show you why it’s so damn lethal. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- **FRAMEWORK** # Actors vs. Observers: the great divergence of 2026 What’s worth more: 2 years of imperfect action or 2 years of perfect preparation? Picture this analogy… **>** Mike spends 2 years “getting ready” to buy a business (a longtime goal of his). **>** He listens to a podcast or 2 about acquisitions. **>** Scrolls through listings a few times during breaks. **>** Tells himself he’ll start “actually getting serious about this” next quarter. **>** Comes back to the idea every few months, feeling excited, then gets distracted. “It’s just not the right time,” he tells himself… every time. “I wanna play it safe and learn more first.” ### His friend Nguyet, on the other hand, does things differently. **>** She signs up for an event like **[Main Street Millionaire Live](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026)** in month 1. **>** Quickly gets up to speed on acquisition fundamentals and builds a plan of action for the weeks and months that follow. **>** Learns about due diligence and SBA financing, and applies those learnings to real deals in real time. **>** Builds models, works with brokers, takes guidance from experts, and drives out to meet sellers. **>** 2 years in, she owns a small portfolio and is already thinking about her next acquisition. The lesson: _action_ runs circles around _thinking about action_. By not taking any action… **Mike lost out on:** * Years of learning how deals actually work (and progressing on one) * Years of building relationships with brokers * Years of pattern recognition * The learning that comes from making offers, negotiating, and facing rejections * The confidence that comes from closing a deal The irony is that the caution he thought would **reduce** risk actually **increased** it. _“Well, at this point, I’ve lost 2 years. Now it’s even more risky…”_ It’s honestly really sad to see this happen to people in real life. Most of the time, it’s because they never learn to take **smart risks**. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/89907bdb-4245-415d-be60-6a550a93ad9c/image.png?t=1769723477) Caption: Every smart risk usually has 3 things behind it: * **Context:** You understand the terrain * **Conviction:** You have confidence in the action * **Contingency:** You know you can come out alive if it goes sideways Nguyet took a smart risk. Her _real_ story isn’t exactly like the example above, but it may actually be even more interesting. Not only did she build up a small portfolio of 6 local pack and ship businesses in a relatively short time, but she did it, intentionally, [without leaving](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/newsletter-articles/how-she-bought-6-main-street-businesses-without-leaving-her-career-in-big-tech) her Big Tech W-2 (smart risk). Here she is with the keys to the castle: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/5ff581cf-a91c-4bcf-8d4e-f9f4872556a9/image.png?t=1769723496) Caption: Plenty of people build real wealth and ownership inside their W-2 alone. That includes Nguyet, who’s a wonderful employee and loves her job. But she (and many others) have read the writing on the wall. _**‍**_**“I make good money at my job, but the thing is, it just all came from one source, and that was scary.”** Clarity around job security is declining. It just is. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/0e4590e7-c863-4dfc-ad12-c975949539b5/image.png?t=1769723517) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/153e3a29-dce3-41f2-9612-8443dea4af7a/Screenshot_2026-01-29_at_6.27.12_PM.png?t=1769729254) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/709f638d-12e7-45d9-a6f3-c435dce83366/Screenshot_2026-01-29_at_6.30.12_PM.png?t=1769729431) Caption: (That was all from this week, and the week’s not over.) In the coming years, if you’re planning on “just going through the motions” in a large corporate setting, you’re asking for trouble. * AI is compressing job ladders. * Assets keep growing more expensive. * Inaction (either inside or outside of your job) has never been more costly. And it’s not a one-and-done cost either. It is a compounding one. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a91d13be-4192-4056-b244-eac0f3025559/image.png?t=1769723541) Caption: Right now, the economy is splitting between **actors and observers**. And observers are facing a silent recession. The biggest mistake right now isn’t making the “wrong move.” It’s making no move. * No move to build more knowledge * No move to build more skills * No move to build more ownership And the longer you wait, the more brutal the math becomes. -------------------- **THEORY** # Why do some people stay stuck while others compound? By now, you probably know that compounding is the most powerful force in finance. But it’s often an overlooked force in life at large. And sometimes, it’s the most dangerous one. Scott Belsky recently observed something we’re going to call **The Decisiveness Dividend:** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/1dcc838e-ee3d-41c8-8271-8d91542d4067/Screenshot_2026-01-29_at_4.53.46_PM.png?t=1769723641) Caption: Here’s that idea, visualized: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bb4f358d-2c1c-48ee-b7a1-c5c14fa5b7b0/image.png?t=1769723618) Caption: ### What’s this look like in practice? **> **2 product managers are deciding whether to build feature A or B. **> **PM #1 spends 3 months analyzing user data, running surveys, and building business cases. **> **PM #2 spends an afternoon on rough analysis. Decides to focus on feature A. Uses Lovable to test a basic prototype the next day. In the process, discovers users actually want neither A nor B. Pivots to C. Ships that 2 weeks later, and iterates on it 3 more times using new data. Massive hit. **> **PM #1 is just now building their V1 based on an analysis that’s now 12 weeks old. **> **Who’s ahead after 3 months? PM #2, and it’s not even close. Taking action generated more insights, which generated even better actions. But forget product management for a second. This pattern is universal. People talk endlessly about how compounding works in your favor. What we usually don’t talk about: **compounding works both ways.** Inaction isn’t neutral. It compounds too. Just in the wrong direction. -------------------- **LESSON** # When compounding works against you… In the moment, inaction feels “smart”. You? Making mistakes? _No._ You’re being thoughtful, strategic, and careful. What could be wrong with that? But inaction is actually a **decision with compounding costs**. The thing you think is reducing risk or stress (waiting, deliberating, being careful) is actually often the source of it. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/827df916-75d2-455d-bb6b-3425e4ee45e1/Screenshot_2026-01-29_at_4.56.44_PM.png?t=1769723818) Caption: ### Jeff Bezos has described this beautifully: _“I think one of the things that’s very important to note about stress is that stress primarily comes from not taking action over something that you can have some control over. So if I find that some particular thing is causing me to have stress that’s a warning flag for me. What it means is there’s something that I haven’t completely identified perhaps in my conscious mind that is bothering me and I haven’t yet taken any action on it.”_ _“I find as soon as I identify it and make the first phone call orsend off the first email message or whatever it is that we’re going to do to start to address that situation, even if it’s not solved, the mere fact that we’re addressing it dramatically reduces any stress that might come from it…”_ Think about the type of people feeling stressed right now when it comes to AI. It’s the highly credentialed, analytically strong, and perpetuallypreparing… who have no idea how to take action. For much of recent human history, being “smart” meant you could synthesize information better than others and come up with good ideas. But AI is commoditizing intelligence. Being “smart” now means pairing **intelligence** (~$20/month with a Claude subscription) with personal **agency** (priceless). The ratio has shifted weight from idea —> action. The cool part? Relentless **actors** often lead **observers** along a very technical, very scientific curve that looks something like this… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/1e5e7f13-9f3f-4606-b428-03054b9fdb1e/image.png?t=1769723856) Caption: The truth is, the observers will always have a theory about why your early action is flawed. They’ll have spreadsheets, podcasts, and “concerns” to back themselves up. But while they’re busy trying to be “right”, people like Nguyet are busy being **owners**. And that’s a pretty darn cool place to be. **-Team Contrarian** ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- **3 THINGS FOR YOU** # Here’s how we can help you right now: 🤝 **Want to learn how to buy a business?** We’re giving you the complete roadmap to getting started in our most comprehensive live training yet. Happening virtually in February — [save your spot ASAP](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026). 📊 **Want 4 cash flow levers to focus on in 2026?** Sign up for our free upcoming [business growth masterclass](https://info.contrarianthinking.co/build-masterclass?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=masterclass_build_february_26). In 90 minutes, we’ll share profit-driving strategies we’re seeing work now. 🛠️ **Want hands-on scaling guidance? **Join Codie and the team in Austin for 3 dedicated days addressing your business’s biggest constraints at our upcoming [Growth Accelerator Workshop](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/growth-accelerator-workshop?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=growth_accelerator_workshop_2026). -------------------- **1 LAST TOOL** # A free way to learn even more… 📊 Get [The Main Street Minute](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/newsletter-articles#newsletter-signup), the only free newsletter that makes you a smarter business buyer and builder every time you open it. -------------------- **DOPAMINE HITS** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/4b27068e-a3f2-4b5d-a921-3c3e5653ac3a/Screenshot_2026-01-29_at_5.31.34_PM.png?t=1769725927) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/614082cf-1c03-4647-ab5f-8fe2946f7f70/Screenshot_2026-01-29_at_5.31.42_PM.png?t=1769725938) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/60861331-553c-4487-9c9e-d0ce2269a4eb/Screenshot_2026-01-29_at_5.31.55_PM.png?t=1769725949) Caption: ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want your brand in front of hundreds of thousands of business builders? Check out our [partnership opportunities](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/partnerships). ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Follow image link: (https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/the-hidden-cost-of-doing-nothing

What does the rest of 2026 realistically look like? These predictions come from working with thousands of business buyers and builders, and from ongoing conversations across our network. Most focus on how demographics, capital, and technology are reshaping small business ownership on the ground. Here they are… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- **PREDICTION** # 1. In 2026, the “Boomer Business” economy outperforms The most resilient businesses in 2026 (and beyond) might not be those focused on A.G.I. but those focused on A.G.E. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/7fa13ec8-8c21-44b1-be1e-661898e57412/CT_NL_12226_Graphics__1_.png?t=1769105417) Caption: Older Americans hold a disproportionately large share of U.S. household wealth, and wealthier households account for a significant (and growing) share of consumer spending. As a result, a wide array of “boomer niches” will attract disproportionate acquisition interest: longevity and preventative clinics, in-home diagnostics, mobility and medical transport, hearing and vision services, home modification, senior moving and estate services, and operational adjacencies to senior living. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8e007bb8-a2c1-4ca4-940b-3512b1aba136/image_-_2026-01-22T131021.004.png?t=1769105428) Caption: These businesses will command premium valuations because their demand curve is anchored to biology. By the mid 2030s, business buyers who focused on “inevitable” demand rather than speculative growth will be seen as having made some of the smartest bets in small business. -------------------- **PRESENTED BY CONTRARIAN THINKING** # Here’s where you’ll learn how to do a deal… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/54a45025-df44-47e1-b3a2-7813724bc1da/Sign_up_now._Take_action..png?t=1769105498) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) Caption: In just a few weeks, we’re hosting a **[3-day virtual training](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026)** where you’ll learn how to buy a business, step by step. * It’s a great way to quickly accelerate the skills needed to do this. * We’ll show you how to source deals, negotiate terms, and conduct due diligence. * Then we’ll help you develop a very clear plan of action for what’s next. Secure your spot now: » _LEARN MORE _« (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) _Now, back to those predictions…_ -------------------- **PREDICTION** # 2. AI matures as a double-edged valuation driver In 2026, business buyers will need to underwrite two things simultaneously: 1. How much AI can **remove drag** from a business. 2. How immune a core business is to **AI substitution**. Labor often represents 15-50% of total business costs in many service SMBs. Even modest automation in scheduling, bookkeeping, marketing, and quoting can materially expand margins. At the same time, many Main Street small businesses remain stubbornly physical. No large language model is transporting an elderly patient with utmost trust and care, unclogging a sewer line, installing an HVAC system, or inspecting a crawlspace, for now. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/981504af-36e1-47c5-a11e-0ddb2a8de693/Ian_Crawl_Space__1_.jpg?t=1769105615) Caption: Growth Boardroom member Ian Mayer, who owns a home inspection business The result is that businesses that are both A) positively exposed to AI-driven margin expansion and B) structurally protected from AI substitution will be increasingly valuable. In 2026, it will be your job to find them. -------------------- **PREDICTION** # 3. Private Equity keeps moving downmarket In 2026, more business buyers will discover that “Main Street territory” is no longer protected ground. Private equity dry powder sits in the **trillions globally**, and competition inside the asset class continues to push capital toward more, smaller deals. Search funds, micro-PE, family offices, and sponsor-backed independents now routinely pursue businesses in EBITDA ranges that individual buyers once had to themselves. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/19f4faee-4b1e-4271-9917-920df7299b44/CT_NL_12226_Graphics.png?t=1769105658) Caption: If you’re using an SBA loan and targeting on-market businesses above **$1M EBITDA**, you should now expect to be outbid 10 times out of 10. Winning in this environment may require a choice: * Look off-market, finding deals others overlook * Look smaller, where scrappiness still scares institutional capital * Or think bigger, by working with others or bringing something other than price to the table. In any case, every buyer must learn to move faster and build stronger credibility. That’s exactly how buyers like [Jesus Wong](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/newsletter-articles/from-corporate-finance-to-buying-a-7-figure-manufacturing-business) closed a 7-figure manufacturing deal in a hyper-competitive landscape. In 2026, capital alone likely won’t win you deals. Credibility, relationships, and the agency to close will. -------------------- **PREDICTION** # 4. “Passive Income” becomes a socially unacceptable phrase Unless you’re this dude, of course: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b586928e-d94f-4a2f-86df-9be9708fba1b/Screenshot_2026-01-22_at_1.13.56_PM.png?t=1769105716) Follow image link: (https://x.com/chasedownleads/status/2011486346162876850?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2011486346162876850%7Ctwgr%5E2267ba223e66cbf661548cfa0dd099dc5f653a51%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.notion.so%2Fcontrarianthinking%2F11-predictions-for-the-rest-of-2026-about-business-buying-2efb87cc35408065b8efca49bcd5bb1d) Caption: But seriously, in 2026, the dream of buying a “boring” business, hiring an operator, and managing it from a beach in Tulum will officially be laid to rest in the graveyard of false financial prophets. It is certainly possible to: * Develop a highly relevant skillset * Work a flexible 9-to-5 * Buy a business on the side * Put in 1-2 years of grueling work developing systems and hiring talent * Get it to a point where you can spend much less time in it day to day People we know have done that. Erik Swift bought a concrete business, [worked relentlessly](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/newsletter-articles/how-he-bought-a-30-year-old-concrete-business-unlocked-growth-and-reduced-his-day-to-day-role) to scale it while in a W-2 job, and managed to grow it while cutting his active involvement down to about 5 hours a week. But that is rare and requires true agency. If you walk into a bank today with a plan to buy a business and spend 5 hours a week on it, you’ll be laughed out of the room. And if you buy a small business with debt and your bottom line isn’t aggressively maintained and optimized, you will end up serving as an unpaid intern for the bank. This is becoming common knowledge, and by the end of 2026, we expect to see a growing movement away from “passive income” and toward “**active income**.” At least, we think (and hope) so. -------------------- **PREDICTION** # 5. The “Silver Tsunami” doesn’t happen the way many assumed By the end of 2026, it will become clear that the supply of sellable businesses isn’t simply a function of overall owner ages. For years, buyers were told to expect a wave of retiring Baby Boomer owners dumping businesses onto the market like hotcakes. And while massive generational shifts are certainly underway, many people (us included) underestimated how certain dynamics would play out in practice. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/980456e5-0a7f-492a-9d02-dbf7d5fc1b79/CT_NL_12226_Graphics__3_.png?t=1769105760) Caption: For one, buyer demand has surged, too. Institutional capital continues to move downmarket, entrepreneurship-through-acquisition programs like ours have expanded, search funds remain active, and more Gen X, Millennial, and even Gen Z owners now pursue acquisitions as a core strategy. That would all be fine, except that **accessible** seller supply hasn’t _quite_ kept up. Many would-be sellers are constrained by messy financials, outdated valuation anchors, massively appreciated real estate values their operating businesses can no longer support, and psychological hurdles. That’s one reason we’re building [BizScout](https://www.bizscout.com/). To make it easier for owners and brokers to do deals. There are still many, many real opportunities out there. We’re seeing themworked on every day in the Contrarian Academy. But they require sound judgment, action, and creativity. In 2026, the silver tsunami won’t hand buyers easy wins, but reward those who understand why selling a business is hard, and know how to help make it possible. -------------------- **PREDICTION** # 6. Entrepreneurship stops meaning “venture-backed” For the better part of two decades, Silicon Valley has held a cultural monopoly over the word “entrepreneur.” To “build a company” in today’s vocabulary has often come to mean building something with venture dollars and ridiculously massive hopes for scale (that will likely never be realized). In 2026, that framing officially breaks. “Entrepreneurship” will revert to its actual meaning: “The activity of setting up a business or businesses, taking on financial risks in the hope of profit.” _Ownership_ and _profitability_ will become the leading aspiration again, not dollars raised. This is even happening within the tech industry itself. As Replit CEO **Amjad Masad** put it, “The way we define entrepreneurship today in Silicon Valley is you build a venture-scale business… but I think the form of entrepreneurship that will come back is the more small business entrepreneurship.” Youtube: AI CEO: How To Make A $10M Business With AI Employees (Amjad Masad, CEO of @replit) (https://youtu.be/-7zWbmD3pBc?si=g7XitS86ALFYfIrQ) “Silicon Valley,” he’s said, “will chase fewer and larger deals while the everyday software company can be comfortably bootstrapped from anywhere.” -------------------- **PREDICTION** # The year 2026 will belong to… 2026 will belong to The Builders. To the people who stop looking for the “Tsunami” to carry them, and who just build a boat and start rowing. The ones who understand that there is no single moment, no perfect market, no demographic wave that does the work for you. These builders will focus on fundamentals. They’ll move faster than most, talk less than most, take action more than most, and stay in the game longer than most. And for these people, the opportunities will be endless. **-Team Contrarian** ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- **SIGN UP NOW** # The best event for learning business buying Soon, we’re hosting [Main Street Millionaire Live](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026), a 3-day virtual accelerator where you’ll learn about how to actually become an owner through acquisition. » _Click HERE to see the schedule_ « (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e41554d6-6d26-4782-9424-d269d7571378/MSM_NL_1626__9___1_.png?t=1767906887) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) Caption: Whether you’re curious or serious about buying a business, we’ll show you how to do deals, save time, and help you develop a very clear plan of action. See you there. -------------------- **1 LAST THING** # A free way to learn even more… 📊 Get [The Main Street Minute](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/newsletter-articles#newsletter-signup), the only free newsletter that makes you a smarter business buyer and builder every time you open it. “This newsletter is exceptional. The insights are sharp, practical, and full of real-world value that actually sticks.” -M.S. -------------------- **DOPAMINE HIT** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e0687bfb-87e9-4fda-92da-8e5091da2638/ezgif-4896326f59836cb4.gif?t=1769105867) Follow image link: (https://x.com/Contrarian/status/2011074209339134296?s=20) Caption: ----------View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want your brand in front of hundreds of thousands of business builders? Check out our [partnership opportunities](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/partnerships). ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Follow image link: (https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/6-predictions-for-the-rest-of-2026

44% of hours worked in the US today are now “automatable” with AI, per McKinsey. Another 13% are automatable via robots. With TODAY’S tech. Tech that’s currently the worst it’ll ever be. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/23c593fe-43b9-4742-892d-fb1c2a8196b0/CT_NL_11526__9_.png?t=1768512746) Caption: Think about that. We certainly are. But we’re trying to DO something about it, too. And below, we want to help you do the same. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## Before we dive in… don’t miss this free event: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a895c86f-4f43-4c32-8480-500fbf65496a/CT_NL_11526__10_.png?t=1768512803) Caption: _Click Here to Join the Call_ (https://info.contrarianthinking.co/buy-masterclass?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=masterclass_buy_january_26) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## Okay, Here’s How to Reinvent Your Business With AI (And Have Fun Doing It) ### IDEA #1: Find Your CAO Everyone’s either excited about AI or thinks it’ll steal their job. We used to be on the fence. Then we hired a guy just to **integrate AI** into everything we do. To be our Chief Automation Officer / Head of AI Transformation / Supreme Leader of Tech-Enabled Productivity. Whatever you want to call it, _that’s him._ Our guy doesn’t really care about titles. His job? * Find every unfair advantage AI gives us… and leverage the hell out of it * Build cool, useful AI tools across our business * Evangelize AI across our team He’s so great… we now have a whole team of AI-first employees. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e74d89c1-4020-4cdb-b468-72d39b493c6c/CT_NL_11526__11_.png?t=1768513002) Caption: Whether you’re already a business owner or if you’re coming to **[Main Street Millionaire Live](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026)** to learn how to buy a legacy business, this is something you need to be thinking about. Maybe it’s you. Maybe it’s someone who already works for you. Or maybe it’s someone you need to hire. But it’s a role _someone_ needs to play, and you’ll likely fall behind without it. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/190b0c5f-2331-4662-81dc-9e5d505fba20/CT_NL_11526__13_.png?t=1768513338) Caption: That’s the biggest opportunity billionaire Mark Cuban sees for young people right now. Not “AI.” _Helping small businesses use AI._ View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bbcaecd2-ba25-49e6-b24f-6f2763564674/CT_NL_11526__14_.png?t=1768513352) Caption: Lower middle market businesses often… * Aren’t big enough to justify custom enterprise solutions or consulting * Are manually process-heavy, with lots of “drag and click” work * Have some budget to spend, but little to no AI expertise to spend it on They sense change is coming, but they don’t know where to start. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/636be981-0c78-4944-b4b9-cfc9c3a30e91/CT_NL_11526__12_.png?t=1768513367) Caption: Right now is a great opportunity to help them. Maybe in another piece, we’ll show you how we’d build a business around that. But for now, let’s focus on you. ### IDEA #2: Run an Internal AI Hackathon This week, we did. And it was (potentially) one of the **most transformative, highest ROI** things we’ve ever done. Not because of the immediate results. But because of the immediate “awakening” across the team. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/0bfbf470-7a78-4b0b-a2a1-6e37c763a8af/CT_NL_11526__16_.png?t=1768513383) Caption: And you’d better believe we’ll be doing it again. In a moment, we’ll show you **exactly how we organized it**, so you can too. But first, you should really see this… ### It’s not just young, scrappy businesses doing this. Take Wharton Professor Ethan Mollick. Wharton was established in 1881. Right now, Mollick is teaching them to throw generations of conventional limitations out the window and focus on AI “vibefounding.” View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/7e947fb3-2cfc-41b7-837e-c76e42034a55/CT_NL_11526__15_.png?t=1768513400) Caption: What he’s seeing makes a lot of traditional assumptions about business education now look… antiquated: 1. **The Pace of Learning Has Changed:** “I have taught entrepreneurship for over a decade. Everything they are doing in 4 days would have taken a semester in previous years, if it could have been done at all. Quality is also far better.” 2. **The Syllabus Has Flattened:** “Give people tools and training, and they can do amazing things. We are using a combination of Claude Code, Gemini, and ChatGPT. The non-coders are all building working products. But also, everyone is doing weeks of high-quality work on financials, research, pricing, positioning, marketing in hours.” 3. **Implementation > Instruction:** “People with experience in an industry or skill have a huge advantage as they can build solutions that have built-in markets & which solve known hard problems that seemed impossible. (Always been true, but the barriers have fallen to actually doing stuff).” 4. **Intelligence Is No Longer Scarce:** “The hardest thing to get across is that AI doesn’t just do work for you, it also does new kinds of work. The most successful efforts often take advantage of the fact that the AI itself is very smart.” “So many assumptions about how to launch a business have clearly changed,” he says. “The students really see how big a deal this is.” Now, back to that hackathon… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **USE THIS TEMPLATE** ## How to Plan an Internal AI Hackathon for Your Business It’s really quite simple. **Step 1: Get your leader** This person needs to be the person who is most genuinely interested in AI at your company. Your CAO. Someone who uses the tools for fun. An evangelist. They should also plan a fun, brief presentation for the beginning of the hackathon, to get everyone on the same page and see the larger picture. Ours was all about the history of AI. **Step 2: Send your team this message** In advance, the leader should send a message with the game plan to the team so everyone knows what to expect coming in. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/38d3b4aa-689d-4adc-b6be-b0d8a6f410d0/CT_NL_11526__17_.png?t=1768513499) Caption: Below is the **actual message** our in-house AI expert sent our team. Feel free to take it and run with it: ---------- **Hey team,** Looking forward to our hackathon on Sunday (1/12) from 12-4pm at the office. Here’s everything you need to know: ### **What is a Hackathon?** A hackathon is a fast-paced, hands-on event where small teams rapidly prototype new tools or solutions in just a few hours. Think of it as a creative sprint where you'll go from idea to working demo by the end of the day. This is not a presentation or lecture - it’s an active, collaborative exercise where you’ll be in the trenches building something real. You’ll each bring one idea, pitch the idea, then we’ll vote on the top 3 and work in teams of 2-3 people, combining your skills (whether that's technical, creative, or strategic) to solve actual problems we face. The energy comes from everyone working simultaneously, bouncing ideas off each other, and seeing what you can accomplish under time pressure. Your attendance and active participation is crucial - the magic happens when everyone's engaged and contributing their unique perspective. Attendees Host: [NAME] Confirmed Participants: 1. [NAME] 2. [NAME] 3. [NAME] 4. [NAME] 5. [NAME] 6. [NAME] 7. [NAME] 8. [NAME] 9. [NAME] ### 📍**In-Person Only** Due to the collaborative, hands-on nature of hackathons, this event requires in-person attendance - we won't be able to accommodate virtual participation. ### 🎯** The Challenge: Come With Ideas for Tools We Need** What frustrates you in your daily work? * Repetitive tasks that eat up time * Information that’s hard to find or analyze What do our customers struggle with? * Questions they ask repeatedly * Calculations or analyses they need help with * Tools they’re currently paying for elsewhere ### ⏰** Schedule Overview** * 12:00 - Food / Intros / Kickoff * 12:30 - Present Idea / Vote / Team Assignments * 12:45 - Quick Presentation on Tools by [NAME] * 1:00 - Building begins ([NAME] floating / providing support throughout) * 3:00 - Final polish * 3:30 - Demos & judging ### **🛠️ What to Bring** * An open mind and contrarian ideas * Your laptop (charged!) * Any favorite tools/accounts logged in (design tools, AI tools, dev environments). At a minimum, have the following: * ChatGPT or Claude * Replit * Optional but helpful: * Adobe Creative Suite (or any content editing software suite) * Figma (or any user journey mapping software) ### 💡** Before You Arrive** * Think about what you’d like to build * No need to prepare anything - fresh ideas welcome * Consider what skills you can contribute (dev, design, strategy, content, etc.) ### 🍕** Food** * Lunch provided around 12pm (the start time) * Snacks and drinks throughout ### 📊** Demos / Judging** At ~3:30PM, each team will demo what they built (3-4 minutes each). No formal presentations needed - just show us what works, what you learned, and how it could be used. We’ll discuss as a group: * **Creativity & contrarian thinking** - Does this solve the problem in an unexpected way * **Feasibility/execution** - How close is this to actually being usable? * **Potential impact for the business** - Would this actually move the needle for our team or members? The goal isn’t perfection - it’s seeing what’s possible in 4 hours and identifying which ideas deserve more development. ----------Oh, and it helps if your hackathon leader has a nerdy sense of humor. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a80f8519-00a7-44d6-bf62-eeb23237eebc/ezgif-41490858fc6e68a0.gif?t=1768513675) Caption: And then… We did it. Here’s a nice blurry photo of the crew in action: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ac82d610-3dc4-47e1-b027-7ae6f825efee/IMG_0067__1_.jpg?t=1768513727) Caption: ## Now Seriously, Run the 4-Hour Test If you locked your team in a room for 4 hours tomorrow and said: “Your job is to use AI to remove 1 menial task from this business or build 1 cool thing for our team or customers.” What would happen? Would they be engaged? As Codie put it: “A lot of founders are **missing the point** of tools like Claude Code. Don’t think about who you can replace with it. Use it to create more builders in your org. Give your team ways to make their job easier, more productive, and more fun. Create **intrapreneurs** in your business.” View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c629e363-797a-4a32-b88b-827adc93bdc6/CT_NL_11526__18_.png?t=1768513768) Caption: The next decade’s winners will be the businesses that: * Assign clear automation leadership * Let curious people experiment without fear * Turn employees into builders, not button-clickers That’s how you eventually 10x productivity without burning people out. That’s how you make work more fun. That’s how small businesses punch way above their weight. So steal this. Name your CAO. Run the hackathon. See what breaks. See what surprises you. Just 4 hours is enough to change how your business thinks about business forever. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **LIKED THAT? YOU’LL LOVE THIS** ## The Best Event to Learn How Buy a Business. Period. Soon, we’re hosting [Main Street Millionaire Live](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026), a 3-day virtual accelerator where you’ll learn about how to actually become an owner through acquisition. » _Click HERE to see the schedule_ « (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e41554d6-6d26-4782-9424-d269d7571378/MSM_NL_1626__9___1_.png?t=1767906887) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) Caption: Whether you’re curious or serious about buying a business, we’ll show you how to do deals, save time, and help you develop a very clear plan of action. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **ONE LAST THING…** _If today’s newsletter resonated with you, we have another (free) way to learn even more:_ 📊 Get the [Main Street Minute](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/newsletter-articles), the only free newsletter that makes you a smarter business buyer and builder every time you open it. #### “This newsletter is exceptional. The insights are sharp, practical, and full of real-world value that actually sticks.” -M.S. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **DOPAMINE HITS** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e884fc7a-52f2-441d-b3d9-5030f7286f33/CT_NL_11526__8_.png?t=1768512726) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c5a3aafa-c0c9-48f7-a912-bdc4b6272791/CT_NL_11526__19_.png?t=1768513961) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want your brand in front of hundreds of thousands of business builders? Check out our [partnership opportunities](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/partnerships). ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Follow image link: (https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/how-to-10x-your-productivity-potential-in-4-hours

View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/0cfbde07-d2ae-492f-955c-6659fe638b2e/MSM_NL_1626__8_.png?t=1767905916) Caption: We’ve watched thousands of smart people try to buy a business. If you do it right, it usually goes something like this… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/645b31ec-6009-493c-8e43-241366dd5920/1.png?t=1767906055) Caption: But many people don’t do it right. Usually, they lose momentum and get stuck right after the first big drop-off. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/455b734a-5bae-442f-89c5-1488fd921901/2.png?t=1767906060) Caption: That’s because, like most things, there’s a huge gap between people who talk about buying a business and people who actually do what’s necessary. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/23f63eae-026c-4116-9682-4f6da11533b6/The_Business_Buying_Curve__4_.png?t=1767906036) Caption: One of the biggest lies people tend to tell themselves repeatedly is: “I’m going to do this… I just need to learn _a little bit more_.” View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/680f79ea-31af-4e0e-a719-b2af7b0399fe/image_-_2026-01-08T160142.877.png?t=1767906114) Caption: _“I just need to know more,”_ they usually say. _“Then I’ll make a move…”_ **Um… no.** You will learn 10x more by doing than by thinking about doing. The people who actually make progress want to learn more, too, by the way. They just do it by taking action. More than that, they use practical systems that essentially **bully them into taking action.** See, when it comes to buying a business, the process can take time. You’re buying a business, after all. There are a lot of factors, decisions, and risks involved. It takes time to find the right business for you and structure the right deal. For Contrarian Academy member Jesus Wong, it took 6 months of focused search. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/123295dc-5f62-43f3-b010-8cd3187824f6/image_-_2026-01-08T160213.973__1_.png?t=1767906173) Caption: Sometimes, it takes longer. For Alex Ramon, it was 18 months before he closed on the acquisition of a custom branding and merchandising company. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/026f22f6-5f11-49fb-b728-dcc87a4020c3/image_-_2026-01-08T160215.600.png?t=1767906153) Caption: That 1 move turned his existing business’s biggest expense into a new profit lever. “The owner had been running it for 23 years, was in his 70s, and was ready to retire,” Alex told us. “The employees had been there for over a decade. It was a perfect fit.” Other times, a deal can also happen relatively quickly. Take this person, who attended **[Main Street Millionaire Live](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026)****:** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90ab9a4f-f242-45dc-8600-30fec8951b8d/Screenshot_2026-01-05_at_5.53.43_AM__2___2_.png?t=1767906217) Caption: Really cool stuff. But what matters most here is what you don’t see… **All the people who got stuck and never made it through:** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/455b734a-5bae-442f-89c5-1488fd921901/2.png?t=1767906060) Caption: What were they missing, that others were not? We think it’s this: Whether it takes you 3, 6, or 18 months to buy a business, the combo-punch that moves people toward a deal is pairing: * Proficiency in the acquisition process * Practical dealmaking tools * And reliable **psychological mechanisms** …That force you to turn theory into implementation every day. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bcff8591-796e-448d-95d8-baf1ab6b5733/CT_NL_73125__2_.png?t=1767906022) Caption: Those first couple of things — knowledge + tools — probably make complete sense to you. But what about the last one: _**psychological mechanisms?**_ Most people don’t understand what these are, why they’re important here, or even why these mechanisms work wonders for business buyers. If you keep reading for 1 more minute, you will. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## 3 Psychological Mechanisms For Crushing Your Goals When applied correctly, these are simply additional tools that help turn “I’ll do this someday” into signed LOIs, broker calls, and real momentum. Below, we’ll show you 3 examples (of many) that can apply directly to the acquisition process: * **The Goal Gradient Effect** * **Parkinson’s Law** * **The Hawthorne Effect** In our experience, business buyers who employ these tend to be very productive. ### 1. The Goal Gradient Effect in Acquisitions One of the biggest advantages we give buyers in our programs is not just more great information and guidance (though we do give them that). It’s **more finish lines**. See, most people treat an acquisition like one massive, foggy objective. * **First of all,** the act of buying a business is actually a _starting line._ The real work begins once you arrive there. * **Second of all,** if you only view things through the lens of 1 giant finish line, you will struggle. For most people, “buy a business” is too far away. Your brain cannot see it, so it never accelerates toward it, like at the end of a race. Instead, we break the entire process into a **set of finish lines** that constantly trigger the Goal Gradient Effect. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/423ced33-4f13-48a5-84ec-bf8225195f64/Screenshot_2026-01-08_at_4.05.32_PM.png?t=1767906342) Caption: [Sketchplanations](https://sketchplanations.com/goal-gradient-effect) You are not “buying a business.” Well, sure you are. But more specifically: * You have learned **2 of 3** core skills. * You have made **8 of 10** broker calls this month. * You have reviewed **4 of 5** deals you committed to analyze this week. Each checkpoint creates proximity. Each one pulls effort forward. Progress becomes visible. Instead of waiting months to feel accomplished, you accelerate across finish lines every few days, and they add up faster than you’d expect toward the larger objective. It’s honestly really cool to see. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **HAPPENING SOON** At our upcoming [business growth masterclass](https://info.contrarianthinking.co/build-masterclass?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=masterclass_boardroom_january_26), you can learn scaling tactics live, for free, from the comfort of your own home. But you need to act soon: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/325aaaa8-ca01-4bc0-9b28-8907a68e3bbf/MSM_NL_1626__3_.png?t=1767906405) Follow image link: (https://info.contrarianthinking.co/build-masterclass?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=masterclass_boardroom_january_26) Caption: Join us virtually next week. Here’s what you’ll get in 90 minutes: * **Tactical levers** you can pull to strengthen cash flow in 2026 * **Proven methods** to boost profit without countless hires or massive spend * **A rapid action plan** for unlocking hidden growth in your business » _Get access HERE_ « (https://info.contrarianthinking.co/build-masterclass?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=masterclass_boardroom_january_26) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ### 2. Parkinson’s Law & Deal-Making Finish lines alone are not enough, though. You need a countdown clock. A deadline. This is one reason we see some buyers “actively searching” for deals for years on end. When buyers give themselves open-ended timelines, every task takes longer than it should. Like, months longer. Parkinson’s Law says it plainly: “Work expands to fill the time available for its completion.” View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/039b6c4e-27d7-4521-aaa7-f81a13601950/image_-_2026-01-08T160957.337.png?t=1767906604) Caption: [Learning Loop](https://learningloop.io/glossary/parkinson's-law) Left alone, most people **quietly renegotiate** timelines with themselves. A month turns into 3, then 6, then a year. Give yourself a year to “search for a business,” and you will have made no progress on anything by month 11. Not because you’re lazy, but because the container is too large and unspecific. So we help buyers get specific with: * Clear windows * Fixed deadlines * Check-ins and reminders We set baselines for how long things should take. Then we help people put themselves on the clock and hold them accountable. ### 3. The Hawthorne Effect in Your Acquisition Search The Hawthorne Effect is the idea that people change their behavior when they know others are watching. Yeah, we buy it. People in our programs are incentivized to make their actions, progress, and goals visible to each other and to us. Individual check-ins are often public, too. **Here’s why this works wonders:** * No one wants to be the person who said they would do 5 tasks and did zero. * No one wants to show up empty-handed when others are showing real momentum and getting credit for it. Here’s 1 example from yesterday of what **visible momentum** looks like for business buyers: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/3f94794a-e305-4cd7-bff0-effb8df07a5f/Screenshot_2026-01-07_at_7.17.29_PM.png?t=1767906029) Caption: When no one is watching, it’s easy to do nothing. But when you know someone is watching, will ask about your progress, and celebrate it, too, progress is more likely to happen. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## Now Decide: Are You a Hammer or a Nail? View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/57f33afe-246c-4572-a71a-c0e9105c38c5/image_-_2026-01-08T161107.171.png?t=1767906675) Caption: Yes, you. This is one of the most important frameworks we know of, because the answer will determine so many things in your life. Hammers aren’t afraid to swing hard, take calculated risks, and make an impact. They don’t wait for things to happen; they make things happen. Nails, on the other hand, wait for things to happen. And they get pounded for it. They hold things in place, but only because someone else decided they should. They stay put and hope they don’t get bent out of shape. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a8436386-49e4-4532-a472-beb6ceb0d576/Owner_Mode_CT_NL__3_.png?t=1767906015) Caption: It can be easy to look at the work of a hammer and think, “Must be nice.” But it’s not easy. What you don’t see are the years of blunt force trauma on the hammer’s head, face, neck, cheek, throat, eye, and claw (all the actual parts of a hammer). If you truly want to buy a business in 2026, you need to think like a hammer and build systems that move you forward every day. Break big goals into small races. Compress time. Find accountability partners. Decide in advance what action looks like. Ownership is not a personality trait. It’s a set of actions, repeated long enough to change your reality. Be a hammer. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **YOUR NEXT STEP** ## Do This Now, Thank Yourself Later In February, we’re hosting **[Main Street Millionaire Live](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026)**, a 3-day virtual accelerator for people who are serious about buying a business but feel stuck. Most people need help: * Building clarity and clear action plans * Spotting the right opportunities * Developing the skills needed to become qualified buyers * Finding the time to make it all happen And that’s why we’re doing this. Whether you’re curious or serious about buying a business, we’ll show you how to do deals right here: » _Click HERE to learn more_ « (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e41554d6-6d26-4782-9424-d269d7571378/MSM_NL_1626__9___1_.png?t=1767906887) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **ONE LAST THING…** _If today’s newsletter resonated with you, we have another (free) way to learn even more:_ 📊 Get the [Main Street Minute](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/newsletter-articles), the only free newsletter that makes you a smarter business buyer and builder every time you open it. #### “This newsletter is exceptional. The insights are sharp, practical, and full of real-world value that actually sticks.” -M.S. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **DOPAMINE HIT** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/572ab014-cda0-4d3e-90f7-0fff77bc4f1f/Screenshot_2026-01-08_at_4.17.25_PM.png?t=1767907056) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want your brand in front of hundreds of thousands of business builders? Check out our [partnership opportunities](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/partnerships). ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Follow image link: (https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/how-to-build-systems-that-bully-you-into-action

View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/193c59fc-dff8-4327-afb1-d681e9211c25/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__27_.png?t=1767272651) Caption: In 2020, Peter Thiel sent an email that aged like a fine wine. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e7ed3445-ac37-4fc8-a583-8f3e4a8acb7c/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__32_.png?t=1767272678) Caption: He was applying basic incentive math: * **If…** you load a generation with student debt. * **If…** housing becomes structurally unaffordable for them. * **If…** it gets too difficult for them to accumulate assets. * **Then…** you shouldn’t be shocked when they turn against capitalism. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/127d3f87-5c40-4bbd-8f68-654c95fa6126/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__34_.png?t=1767272707) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/384ce58c-3a49-484b-b56b-220d72b495c5/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__33_.png?t=1767272717) Caption: If you don’t own anything, you can’t benefit from an economy that’s designed to increase asset values. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **FROM CONTRARIAN THINKING** ## This February, Learn How to Acquire a Business View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/409b7fe8-c509-42ec-9f2b-a58d7262ea15/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__5_.png?t=1767272889) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) Caption: _Click HERE to see the schedule_ (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## Now Fast Forward to Today. As in, Literally Today… Last night, Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani was sworn in as mayor of New York City, the financial capital of the world. Young voters backed him overwhelmingly. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a42d962e-8be5-41ae-9403-9b892eec2be7/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__37_.png?t=1767272757) Caption: His platform promises include rent price freezes, free childcare, and free public busing, paid for by higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations. The immediate reaction from critics has been understandable: claims that young people are entitled, economically illiterate, or infected with socialism through TikTok. Whether or not that’s true, capitalism depends on participation. Without it, the system loses its defenders. If you want the next generation to be **pro-business**, you have to make it easier for them to **do business**. That means creating real on-ramps to ownership, not just telling people to “trust the process.” Right now, trust is thin. And everywhere you look, there are few reasons for it to thicken… View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## For Example, Look 3,000 Miles West Right now, California is staring down the barrel of a consequential tax debate. A coalition wants to put a ballot measure before voters that would impose a **significant tax on the net worth** of Californians with more than $1 billion in assets. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/23d268c4-050f-4658-ad17-69b3acb5abbc/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__38_.png?t=1767273078) Caption: If passed, it could raise **billions** of dollars. However, this is not a corporate tax on profits or receipts. This is a **wealth tax** on unrealized capital gains. Critics argue this tax **punishes** business builders who create millions of jobs and enormous economic value, disincentivizes local investment, and could weaken California’s advantage as a global innovation engine. Understandably, critics also question why yet another massive pile of tax dollars would be any more effective than the last. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bc6b7c5b-32d8-4ef5-a327-a7b2e618efe2/Screenshot_2026-01-01_at_8.11.37_AM.png?t=1767273106) Caption: For California, this could also backfire. If you incentivize builders to leave, you could lose out on billions of dollars in future taxes if those business owners and investors do, in fact, leave. ## What About Minnesota? This week, you may have also seen headlines centered around alleged longtime funding fraud across Minnesota social services, including in child care, health centers, and food programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/6ef9eea4-8b9b-4737-bc34-3059af02209e/Screenshot_2026-01-01_at_8.12.18_AM.png?t=1767273145) Caption: The latest drama was ignited by a viral video claiming that multiple day care centers were receiving taxpayer money while providing little to no services, with one center’s logo even ironically misspelling “**learning** center” as “**learing** center”. [Not a joke](https://x.com/nypost/status/2006069332543955120?s=20). The video spread like wildfire and is closing in on **150 million views**. This was essentially the public’s reaction: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/28d55a4e-2668-4ae3-8b75-0bdd937d6422/4mecdK_vvm4ct6hx-ezgif.com-optimize.gif?t=1767273181) Caption: It also drew the attention of political and law enforcement officials. Federal prosecutors [have now alleged](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-prosecutors-probe-18b-minnesota-151500005.html) that **half (or more) of roughly $18 billion** in federal funds tied to multiple Minnesota programs since 2018 may have been misappropriated and are investigating them further. ## Snowball Effect Another pattern we keep running into, often right after conversations about fraud and institutional failure, is the explosion in gambling and high-risk financial behavior across the U.S. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/dcab9cd9-2533-44da-8d31-210de1ff8e1e/image_-_2026-01-01T081314.438.png?t=1767273200) Caption: Betting and prediction markets have grown at a near-vertical rate, moving tens of billions annually after being almost nonexistent just a few years ago. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e0a6de2d-92f7-4e71-863e-f74c7e600540/yagKEAIXhG2mSwlt-ezgif.com-optimize.gif?t=1767273220) Caption: The scary part? Participation is concentrated among the same generations facing the weakest expected returns from conventional career and wealth-building paths. * A 2023 [study](https://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/2023news/PrevalenceReport2023Final.pdf) found 19% of 18 to 24-year-olds qualified as having a gambling problem (betting more than they could afford, chasing losses, etc.) * A 2025 [Credit Karma survey](https://www.creditkarma.com/about/commentary/the-high-stakes-of-sports-betting-financial-fallout-and-family-strain) found that nearly half of sports bettors or their partners “have experienced mental health issues like depression as a result of sports betting activity.” Of Gen Z bettors, 37% said they had a gambling addiction. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/d2f8ec3b-b471-47d9-8540-ca8452a032f0/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__31_.png?t=1767273253) Caption: As one writer [put it](https://x.com/systematicls/status/2004900241745883205): “When you’re trapped, your risk preferences change… For a generation that sees no realistic path [to wealth and ownership] through conventional means, the expected value of a moonshot starts looking better than the expected value of grinding.” For decades, our social contract was built around **delayed gratification**. You showed up consistently, advanced slowly, and trusted that time itself would do half the work for you. Wealth accumulated quietly in the background through pensions, home equity, and predictable career ladders. That framework is **no longer as reliable**. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/00aea7dc-b1e0-45de-9792-80e010584b2e/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__30_.png?t=1767273277) Caption: **To summarize:** * Billions being lost to fraud in Minnesota * A $100B+ New York budget about to be spent rampantly on the same kinds of programs * Higher taxes pitched as the solution to the obvious mismanagement in California * Realizing why people have stopped trusting in institutions and each other * Risk and gambling filling the vacuum as patience stops paying View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/6f43ad1b-da32-40fa-9f06-8f4c72d3f0f1/image.png?t=1767274233) Caption: It’s rough out there. But something we always say in the [Contrarian Academy](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/contrarian-academy) and [Growth Boardroom](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/growth-boardroom) is that **we’re builders, not burn-it-downers.** As bleak as it may appear, and as little as it may feel like things are in our control, there is actually quite a lot that you can do. ## It’s Time to Invest in Systems Today also marks the end of an era. **Warren Buffett** is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, closing a chapter that quietly defined modern American capitalism. Since Buffett began using Berkshire as his primary investment vehicle in the mid-1960s, the company’s stock price has risen by more than **[5.5 million percent](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/corporations/warren-buffett-retires-legacy-rcna251590)**. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8ccd4d34-7872-46ca-8897-514e7968a40c/Screenshot_2026-01-01_at_8.15.12_AM.png?t=1767273320) Caption: In this context, Buffett is the godfather of **systems investing**.** **What better way to carry his torch than to build ownership in 2026? View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/6e74d1de-4178-4ae5-a2a8-f464fcbacde4/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__41_.png?t=1767273347) Caption: As Buffett would point out, investing in businesses isn’t only useful on an individual level. It can be powerful for our society, too, and we ought to do better at it. Consider this excerpt from [Noah Smith](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-everyone-loves-japan) on why people love Japan so much: _“Japan’s cities have something extra special… I believe that that something is commercial density. Tokyo has an order of magnitude more restaurants than New York or Paris, and the disparity in retail stores is probably similar. Small business is the lifeblood of Japanese cities — and, in many ways, of the Japanese middle class. This might be partly cultural, but at least some of it is the result of deliberate policy. Japanese zoning usually limits the size of stores in mixed-use areas, ensuring that small businesses dominate. The Large-Scale Retail Store Location Law also provides some protection. And Japan’s government provides lots of support for people who want to start small businesses, including a variety of subsidies. This support, along with a culture of craftsmanship, might be why Japan’s independent restaurants and stores tend to stand out in terms of both quality and originality.”_ Also, look at the data below. Small businesses are the most unifying institution in America, according to the Pew Research Center... And it’s not even close. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c425691b-4dca-4b24-a5f5-f726dd6c35ce/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__39_.png?t=1767273377) Caption: Investing in and building small businesses pushes back against the multi-front economic battle that’s dividing our country. The bad news is it’s hard, the good news is it’s something you have the agency to achieve. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd8e5b66-0fc6-46a3-a94a-969053d3e7a1/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__28_.png?t=1767273400) Caption: If owning a business were easy and risk-free, everyone would be an owner. Fortunately, it’s not easy. And _you’re_ not everyone. As Marc Andreessen said, the world is more malleable than it looks, especially to those who decide what they want and go after it with focus and persistence. With the right playbooks, tools, and guidance from those who’ve done it, you can form a path to generational ownership and a stake in the future of your community. In 2026, we’d love to help you get it done. The clock starts now. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## Ready to Learn How to Buy a Business? Start Here. It’s not rocket science, but there is a science to this. At [Main Street Millionaire Live](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026), we’ll help you save time, understand how to do this the right way, and take action with a clear plan. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90bdc9a5-d824-4729-89ce-1f2ba118815e/Copy_of_MSM_NL_121625__26_.png?t=1767273473) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) Caption: _Click HERE to see the schedule_ (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **ONE LAST THING…** _If today’s newsletter resonated with you, we have another (free) way to learn even more:_ 📊 Get the [Main Street Minute](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/newsletter-articles), the only free newsletter that makes you a smarter business buyer and builder every time you open it. #### _“This newsletter is exceptional. The insights are sharp, practical, and full of real-world value that actually sticks.” -M.S._ View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **DOPAMINE HIT** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/45316510-b4d1-4cc2-acec-77b50f61ea91/Screenshot_2026-01-01_at_8.19.00_AM.png?t=1767273555) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want your brand in front of hundreds of thousands of business builders? Check out our [partnership opportunities](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/partnerships). ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Follow image link: (https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/america-s-economic-participation-crisis

“**“There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all.”**“ — -Peter Drucker We’ve served nearly **15,000 business builders** in recent years. Lately, a lot of them are seeing the same thing: Across society, data is pointing toward less focus, less ownership, and more fragility. A growing number of them want to actively **push back**. Here are **11 powerful ideas** they’re taking seriously. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## 1. Choose Unkind Truths Over Kind Lies This chart explains why so many people, companies, and countries have drifted into quiet failure. If you want 2026 to be different, start here. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/faf476da-c871-4220-9730-cee4def249c8/_I_very_frequently_get_the_question__What_s_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__I_almost_never_get_the_question__What_s_not_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__And_I_submit_to_you_that_that_se__3___1_.png?t=1766095421) Caption: [William Meijer](https://x.com/williameijer/status/1982843284289700210?s=20) Here’s the tactical rule those in our [Academy](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/contrarian-academy) and [Boardroom](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/growth-boardroom) programs know is true: **If a truth will eventually have to be said, say it at the earliest possible scale.** In practice: * Give feedback when it’s a sentence, not a termination. * Address misalignment when it’s awkward, not explosive. * Name the problem while it’s still reversible. This will save you from being a jerk later. As one X user [put it](https://x.com/ArtemisConsort/status/1986963360471261349?s=20): “The reason it’s incredibly hard to break out of a ‘kind lie’ **doom loop** is because the longer it’s gone on, the more unkindness is needed to get back on track. And the fact that you’re in this situation to begin with probably means your culture will hate that.” Kind lies don’t disappear. They hide until they’re expensive. ## 2. You May Win More By Being a Tad Cringe Certain mindsets are great for protecting your ego but terrible for producing results. That tradeoff is about to matter more than ever. Arjun Mahadevan, CEO of one of our portfolio companies, [Doola](https://www.doola.com/), has a phrase he likes to use: “Keep climbing Cringe Mountain.” View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ac1173e6-0e7a-49e2-a1b4-8b9eaf742283/_I_very_frequently_get_the_question__What_s_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__I_almost_never_get_the_question__What_s_not_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__And_I_submit_to_you_that_that_se__4_.png?t=1766095462) Caption: [Seen on X @ArjunMahadevan](https://x.com/ArjunMahadevan/status/1908143798573556196?s=20) Another person [put it perfectly](https://x.com/TKbreezy/status/1899933596368199809?s=20): “I don’t think you necessarily need to ‘be cringe,’ but you need to try. Somewhere along the line, people figured **not caring was cool**. Man, nah. Stand for something. Try! Be chalant as hell. Care!” Even Harley Finkelstein, President of the **$210B company** Shopify, agrees. “Cool waits for results; cringe creates them.” ## 3. Thinking is Increasingly a Scarce Skill Over the last 25 years, daily reading habits have plummeted off a cliff. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8a9c32b6-282b-4655-b354-a28b817bee57/Screenshot_2025-12-18_at_5.05.25_PM.png?t=1766095538) Caption: National reading scores are at multi-decade lows. Elite college students aren’t reading books. Attention has moved from text to feeds, clips, and endless scroll. Almost entirely the result of AI, something similar is happening with writing. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/dd5ca260-3fbf-4614-9cbb-0779b44f8fec/_I_very_frequently_get_the_question__What_s_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__I_almost_never_get_the_question__What_s_not_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__And_I_submit_to_you_that_that_se__5_.png?t=1766095571) Caption: “Writing is thinking,” author and historian David McCullough said in 2002. **“To write well is to think clearly. That’s why it’s so hard.”** In 2026, writing and reading well are hard evidence that you can think. When fewer people can do this, the ones who can gain leverage. Of course, there are many exceptions. There are obviously times when AI reading, writing, and “thinking” is **100% the right, faster, better move**, and we hunt for these opportunities at Contrarian Thinking every day. But in a world optimizing for distraction, the ability to sit with ideas is becoming quietly powerful. ## 4. Which Means… You Should Probably Scroll Less Scrolling too much appears to be correlated with cognitive _decline_. “A systematic [review](https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2026-89350-001.pdf) of 71 studies with 98,000 participants published in 2025 reached an alarming finding… Heavy short-form video users showed moderate deficits in attention, inhibitory control, and memory,” [wrote](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/the-26-most-important-ideas-for-2026) Derek Thompson. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/3806d7a7-f5de-4cfd-9f0e-8f36870ad7d3/_I_very_frequently_get_the_question__What_s_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__I_almost_never_get_the_question__What_s_not_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__And_I_submit_to_you_that_that_se__6_.png?t=1766095587) Caption: Again, in 2026, **sustained attention** is likely to become a differentiator in life. ## 5. We’re Facing a Societal Decline in Ownership If you want to understand the next decade of politics, economics, and culture wars, start with this chart: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/2026daee-f158-49a6-ad51-5fb4c0d41846/image_-_2025-12-18T170640.335.png?t=1766095616) Caption: As homeownership declines, something deeper erodes with it. People lose not just physical ownership, but a _sense_ of ownership itself. When you own, you care, and when fewer people own, you get a society full of this: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/7a6dddda-e04f-4bbc-a25e-cb3c2e154461/_I_very_frequently_get_the_question__What_s_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__I_almost_never_get_the_question__What_s_not_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__And_I_submit_to_you_that_that_se__7_.png?t=1766095634) Caption: As Peter Thiel has said, “If one has no stake in the capitalist system, then one may well turn against it.” View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ==** THIS IS URGENT **== ## 6. Learn to Build Ownership… ASAP No matter who you are, ownership is now an essential skill. Through our programs and events, we help people build it, and **we will bully you** until you do too. It’s _that_ important. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/2c36a246-9f90-436a-ab56-22621f1137ed/Grim_reaper__2_-min.png?t=1766095731) Caption: Cause here’s the thing: “acquisitions” and “building ownership” aren’t one skill. They’re a broad stack of skills. Most people learn them the **slow, expensive way:** trial and error. Much of that is inevitable. But much of it can also be accelerated. That’s why this February, we’re hosting **[Main Street Millionaire Live](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026)** to affordably give you rapid, concentrated education in the skills we’ve seen matter most. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/61b1def0-43cf-4a93-99a7-459be1687bf8/MSML_3_Day_2026_NL_Graphic_Ideas__13___1_.png?t=1766095752) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) Caption: #### _“This wasn’t just another hype-filled event. It was packed with real, actionable strategies and hands-on workshops. Codie and the team poured so much value into every session, and the energy in the room was next level.” -Adam C._ If you want to buy a small business with competence, discipline, and a realistic plan, that’s exactly what [**Main Street Millionaire Live**](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) can help you with. **But you should act soon.** We go live virtually February 20th-22nd, but our most affordable pricing (just $47) will likely end on January 5th. Click _HERE_ To Learn More (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) Let us know if you got a ticket and plan to attend. We’d love to see you. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ## 7. New Life Paths Will Soon Emerge Between AI, labor markets, and ownership trends, we are on the precipice of major shifts in cultural, economic, and educational norms. Life paths will soon look very different, and we’re already seeing some of this play out in our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/f5b98a67-fdd1-4ee2-b4c2-2f2cbf0cae8f/Screenshot_2025-12-18_at_5.10.14_PM.png?t=1766095820) Caption: Here’s **1 life path** we _expect_ more young people will take: 1. Instead of contorting themselves into a mortgage they can’t truly afford, they will rent and maintain flexibility.‍ 2. They’ll focus on building income, maybe even getting married, and working to build ownership in a business rather than a home.‍ 3. A business will give them things a house likely won’t: cash flow, skills, and potential job protection in a terrible labor market.‍ 4. Because they’re renting, they also won’t have to worry about all the added costs and responsibilities that come with homeownership.‍ 5. For years, they will focus on pouring their energy into growing sales, improving operations, and paying down acquisition debt with profits.‍ 6. Any surplus cash flow can be saved or reinvested in their business, rather than into a home’s surprise roof leaks, insurance spikes, and constant maintenance.‍ 7. Then, when the timing is right, they can choose to buy a home from a position of strength.‍ 8. By that point, they may own a business with meaningful cash flow (potentially worth multiples more as a result of their work), along with valuable experience. If the old path was to buy a house, _then_ build wealth, the new path **might actually be the opposite**: build wealth, then choose to buy a house if it makes sense for you. ## 8. But Life’s Constants Now Matter More Than Ever AI is moving fast enough that even the [very people building it](https://www.anthropic.com/research/how-ai-is-transforming-work-at-anthropic) aren’t sure if their jobs will exist soon. Jeff Bezos has an amazing framework for building an enduring business despite uncertainty. Instead of guessing trends, focus on what will **never change:** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/4ebeebad-4ad7-4d25-acb4-f9cbf569633c/_I_very_frequently_get_the_question__What_s_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__I_almost_never_get_the_question__What_s_not_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__And_I_submit_to_you_that_that_se.png?t=1766095880) Caption: “It’s impossible to imagine a future,” Bezos said, “where a customer comes up and says, ‘Jeff, I just wish the prices were a little higher,’ or, ‘I wish you’d deliver a little more slowly.’” Whether you’re grinding at your 9-to-5 or are a local plumbing business owner in our Boardroom, the same principles can apply. ## 9. The R.O.I. of Proximity Will Continue to Rise If you want to know where fortunes will be made in 2026, don’t look at markets; look at rooms. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/bf4a39fd-7144-4dde-8e9a-ac88aaffa13f/Screenshot_2025-12-18_at_5.11.33_PM.png?t=1766095898) Caption: **Wealth follows proximity**. The closer you are to capital, information, and ambition, the higher your expected return. * A face-to-face request is [34x more successful](https://hbr.org/2017/04/a-face-to-face-request-is-34-times-more-successful-than-an-email) than the same ask over email. * Patents are far [more likely](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20367/w20367.pdf) to cite geographically nearby patents. * Economists analyzing [21 billion](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04996-4) Facebook friendships found that “economic connectedness” across class lines is one of the strongest predictors of upward mobility.‍ * A 2024 study found that higher social trust in leveraged buyouts is [correlated with](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521924002382) transaction synergies and long-term operating performance. Like any asset, the earlier you buy in, the greater your potential to compound (better relationships, asymmetric insight, and time saved). Economists call it **agglomeration**, the phenomenon where productivity and innovation rise as people and ideas cluster together. We see this play out in real time, all the time, among our **~2,500 active members.** ## 10. There’s About to Be (A Lot) Less Career Planning Earlier this year, Ford CEO Jim Farley said AI will “replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the U.S.” According to [November data](https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/white-collar-workers-job-anxiety-d8f83885?mod=hp_lead_pos4) from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, college-educated workers said the likelihood of finding a new job within three months, if laid off, has decreased to 47%. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a93f0861-cff7-4b28-a3fc-4accc09ff6b4/Screenshot_2025-12-17_at_3.56.34_PM__1_-min.png?t=1766095991) Caption: If this hits close to home, it would be wise to follow Marc Andreesen’s 1st rule of career planning: **Don’t.** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/0663e0be-226e-4fc9-bd99-e23416d7ad87/_I_very_frequently_get_the_question__What_s_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__I_almost_never_get_the_question__What_s_not_going_to_change_in_the_next_10_years__And_I_submit_to_you_that_that_se__2_.png?t=1766095936) Caption: He wrote this in 2007. It has never been more relevant than it will be in 2026. Next year, it will also be wise to follow Andreesen’s **2nd rule of career planning:** “Focus on developing skills and pursuing opportunities.” **[Main Street Millionaire Live](https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026)** is a great way to do exactly that. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/91a93c6b-e615-4252-a384-0e910c7b8a0d/CT_NL_121125__10_-min.png?t=1765470366) Follow image link: (https://codiesanchez.com/msm/?utm_source=ct-newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=msm_live_feb_2026) Caption: ## 11. Expand Your Luck Surface Area “Luck” in wealth-building isn’t usually that random. It’s probability bending toward people who’ve positioned themselves for it. **Here’s how it actually works:** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/91534f71-23f0-4a90-b33d-7263190560c0/CT_NL_121825__1_.png?t=1766096073) Caption: Work toward these, and watch your “luck” (and personal fulfillment) drastically expand in 2026. We’ll be doing the same. **-Team Contrarian** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **ONE LAST THING…** _If today’s newsletter resonated with you, we have another (free) way to learn even more:_ 📊 Get the [Main Street Minute](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/newsletter-articles), the only free newsletter that makes you a smarter business buyer and builder every time you open it. #### _“This newsletter is exceptional. The insights are sharp, practical, and full of real-world value that actually sticks.” -M.S._ View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: **DOPAMINE HIT** View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8fc9922a-6aee-4e2b-a2bc-b14d832a93f6/Screenshot_2025-12-18_at_5.20.31_PM.png?t=1766096439) Caption: View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fd286740-913d-4bdc-8043-f9e2455a4aa1/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__14_.png?t=1762465252) Caption: ---------- ### What’d you think of this week’s newsletter? Hit reply to let us know. How ya feeling? Did we crush it? Blow your mind? We read every response. ### Want your brand in front of hundreds of thousands of business builders? Check out our [partnership opportunities](https://www.contrarianthinking.co/partnerships). ### Want more where that came from? Head to [our website](https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) to learn more about our programs. View image: (https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/90cbcc83-60a8-4111-a350-258638f4e7c0/Contrarian_Thinking_Newsletter_Header__11_.png?t=1762467308) Follow image link: (https://contrarianthinking.co/?utm_campaign=Contrarian%20Thinking%20Newsletter&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-90LvDUTfG8Fm-xGM8jXVBt7uluSRlU5ysaXpLBMeObDeavkTRlcLz6Jl19SHQtH2MKJXb9) Caption: ---------- ——— You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience, copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://ct.contrarianthinking.co/p/11-ideas-that-could-change-your-life-in-2026